High-Resolution Satellite-Driven Estimation of Photosynthetic Carbon Sequestration in the Sundarbans Mangrove Forest, Bangladesh

Abstract

Mangrove forests provide essential climate regulation and coastal protection, yet fine-scale quantification of carbon dynamics remains limited in the Sundarbans due to spatial heterogeneity and tidal influences. This study estimated canopy structural and photosynthetic dynamics from 2019 to 2023 by integrating 10 m spatial high-resolution remote sensing with a light use efficiency (LUE) modeling framework. Leaf Area Index (LAI) was retrieved at 10 m resolution using the PROSAIL radiative transfer model applied to Sentinel-2 data to characterize the canopy structure of the mangrove forest. LUE-based Gross Primary Productivity (GPP) was estimated using Sentinel-2 vegetation and water indices and MODIS fPAR with station observatory temperature data. Annual carbon uptake showed clear interannual variation, ranging from 1881 to 2862 g C m−2 yr−1 between 2019 and 2023. GPP estimates were strongly correlated with MODIS-GPP (R2 = 0.86, p < 0.001), demonstrating the method’s reliability for monitoring mangrove carbon sequestration. LUE-based Solar-induced Chlorophyll Fluorescence (SIF) was derived at 10 m resolution and compared with TROPOMI-SIF observations to assess correspondence (R2 = 0.88, p < 0.001) with photosynthetic activity. LAI, GPP and SIF exhibited pronounced seasonal and interannual variability on photosynthetic activity, with higher values during the monsoon growing season and lower values during dry periods. Mean NDVI declined from 2019 to 2023 and modeled annual carbon uptake ranged from approximately 43 to 65 Mt CO2 eq, with lower sequestration in 2022–2023 associated with climatic stress. Strong correlations among LAI, NDVI, GPP, and SIF indicated consistent coupling between photosynthetic activity and carbon uptake in the mangrove ecosystem. These results provide a fine-scale assessment of mangrove carbon dynamics relevant to conservation and climate-mitigation planning in tropical regions.