Adaptation-stories for imagining futures adjusting to a changing climate

Abstract

Effective adaptation planning requires the integration of diverse forms of knowledge ‒ from local experiences to scientific understanding of projections of climate and societal change and their potential impacts on livelihoods and natural systems. However, the volume, complexity and uncertainty of information can hinder stakeholders from taking decisive action. In this study we present a bottom-up approach for developing adaptation-stories that combine quantitative estimates with qualitative knowledge and experience for portraying past or “imagining” future climate change impacts and adaptation responses. The approach is based on a participatory process comprising five steps: (1) co-definition of a notable climate change impact affecting a chosen livelihood or other specific context; (2) identification of the specific types of climatic and non-climatic factors responsible for the given notable climate change impact; (3) co-evaluation of adaptation measures for ameliorating or exploiting impacts, (4) characterisation of the causal mechanisms and assumptions that specify how the notable impacts and their adaptation have been experienced in the past and how they may develop in the future; and; (5) co-development of adaptation-stories by researchers and stakeholders. We suggest that well-crafted adaptation-stories may empower local actors by exploring climate change adaptation through the lens of their unique experiences and livelihoods. They can also serve as conversation starters between diverse actors and generally spark thinking about adaptation solutions. We illustrate this through a case relating to the planning of a major renewal of a hospital in Finland, reflecting how different actors have adapted to heat-related challenges.