Do we need to adapt the choice of main boreal tree species in forest regeneration under the projected climate change?

Abstract

In this work, it was studied the need to adapt the choice of main Finnish boreal tree species in forest regeneration under the projected climate change. The forest ecosystem model (SIMA) was used to simulate the volume growth of young Norway spruce, Scots pine and silver birch stands under the current and gradually changing climate throughout Finland on sites with fertility varying from low to high. Compared with the current climate, the growth of Scots pine and silver birch increased under the changing climate throughout Finland. The increase was the highest on fertile sites under the SRESA2 climate change scenario. The growth of Norway spruce decreased in southern and central Finland under the SRES A1B and A2 climate change scenarios compared with the current climate, and especially on sites with low fertility. In northern Finland, the growth of Norway spruce was clearly higher under the changing climate similar to Scots pine and silver birch, regardless of site fertility and time span. Overall, the growth responses of different tree species differed from each other largely depending on the geographical location and climate change scenario applied. Based on this work, we may need to adapt the choice of main Finnish boreal tree species in forest regeneration under the changing climate, to consider the uncertainties related to the projected climate change in different time spans.