Characterizing implementers of on-going large-scale diversification of land use in Finland : One of the northernmost agricultural regions in Europe

Context: Finland is one of the northernmost crop production regions in Europe, where monotonously sequenced spring cereals and grasslands dominate the agricultural land use. Climate warming has, however, enabled diversification supported by established markets and adapted cultivars. Objective: This study focused on six diversifying crops: winter wheat, oilseed rape, peas, faba beans, maize, and oil hemp. The aims were to characterize recent changes in cultivation intensity and their likely drivers, identify implementers, understand how the novel crops were allocated on farms, and whether all these varied over time. Methods: We used farm- and parcel scale-data from Finnish Food Authority to study the number of parcels allocated to diversifying crops in grid cells of 10 × 10 km across Finland and to characterize implementers and allocation of crops on a farm on three regions in 2011, 2016 and 2021. Sentinel-2 satellite images were used to estimate productivity gaps. Results and conclusion: The cultivation area of diversifying crops has substantially increased but plenty of unexploited potential still exists. The area of winter wheat and peas has continued to expand compared with 2016. Due to the challenge of climate resilience, the area of faba bean has stagnated, while oilseed rape has declined also due to a high pest risk. Oil hemp and silage maize are very novel crops with growing interest, cultivated in small, scattered areas. Farmers who had large farms and produced pigs, poultry, and cereals were key implementers of diversifying crops, which were typically allocated to large parcels. The farm types of primary adopters of different crops varied slightly over time, but not how crops were allocated on a farm, depending on parcel characteristics. Winter wheat was adopted especially by conventional farmers, who allocated it to highly productive parcels with break-crop and diverse rotations. Organic farmers especially implemented faba beans more frequently, as well as peas, but this was not the case in 2021. Pig farmers have adopted grain legumes likely to substitute for imported soya. In 2011, implementers of oilseed rape had typically a high cereal share on farms, while in 2021, adoption was independent of cereal share. Oilseed rape was favored by conventional farmers, who allocated it to highly productive parcels likely to avoid problems with root penetration. Significance: This study gives examples of how large-scale adoption routes may differ, depending on the crop, and indicates sensitivity to external factors that either motivate or hinder transition despite warmer northern climates, established markets, and adapted cultivars.