Forest value chain resilience from a local perspective in five European countries: analysis of predictors and co-drivers

Climate change-associated disturbances such as storms, wildfires, and pest outbreaks increasingly destabilize forest systems, threatening their ecological, economic, and social functions. These disruptions impact the forest value chain (FVC) by causing fluctuations in timber supply, from a quantity and quality perspective. This study employed the operational resilience framework (ORF) to assess FVC resilience in five European case studies (CZ, HR, DE, FIN, and ESP), focusing on timber supply as a key system variable. A resilience assessment was conducted using resilience thresholds, considering sustainability from both ecological and economic perspectives. Principal component analysis (PCA) identified three predictor groups that influenced FVC resilience: wood production (WP), harvesting systems (HS), and management and silviculture (MS). Findings revealed that regions with proactive management and sufficient processing capacities (CZ, HR, and ESP) maintained relative stability despite natural disturbances, while others (DE and FIN) experienced prolonged instability due to market-driven logging practices and limited adaptive measures. The study highlighted the frequent breaching of resilience thresholds, particularly during high-volume salvage logging following disturbances such as bark beetle outbreaks, windstorms, and wildfires. The results emphasized the importance of integrating adaptive and proactive strategies to mitigate these impacts. The ORF demonstrated potential for operationalizing FVC resilience and provided guidance for improving preparedness against future disturbances.