Effects of wood products substitution on fossil carbon emissions in Finland, the European Union, and the world

The main driver of climate change is fossil carbon emissions that can be avoided by using renewables instead of fossil-intensive energy or materials. A displacement factor (DF) quantifies fossil emissions avoided by wood use instead of a fossil material. Substitution impact of wood products can be calculated by multiplying their product-specific DFs and their production volumes. We quantified the substitution impact in Finland, the European Union (EU), and worldwide for 2020 using two different DF sets. We extended the analysis out to 2040 in Finland. Depending on DFs used, the avoided fossil emissions by wood use were 13–38 (Finnish wood), 149–317 (EU wood), and 971–2014 (world wood) MtCO2e in 2020. These correspond to 37–94% (Finland), 6–12% (EU), and 3–6% (world) of total fossil emissions in their respective areas, highlighting the importance of substitution impacts. Despite the uncertainties, the estimates show large climate effects. In Finland, the substitution impact approaches the scale of the total fossil emissions of the country, while at the EU and global scales, the impact is similar in scale to the entire reported LULUCF criterion. The DFs for wood use may decrease in the future because of the decarbonization of the energy systems used in the production of alternatives to wood: steel, concrete, and plastics. However, wood products will remain important in avoiding fossil emissions by providing bio-based material and energy options.