Implications for the distributional range of the European bark beetles under future climate change

Abstract

The European continent is rich in forest resources, with bark beetles being the most significant biological disturbance impacting European forest ecosystems. Over the past few decades, many trees have died due to bark beetle infestations, causing considerable economic damage to forestry. It is estimated that climate change will affect the distributional range of bark beetles, increasing the risk of outbreaks. However, the ability of different beetle populations to respond to climate change remains unknown. For this purpose, we selected nine species of bark beetles commonly found in Europe and constructed the MaxEnt model to simulate the distribution pattern of bark beetles under climatic conditions based on 21 environmental variables. Modeling projected changes in the distribution of different species of bark beetles under four climate scenarios for 2081–2100 using future climate variables and testing the hypothesis that narrow-ranged species are more vulnerable to climate change than wide-ranged species. The results show that the distribution of most bark beetles is influenced by temperature-related variables. With climate change, the suitable distribution areas for most species will expand and gradually shift to higher latitudes. Furthermore, most of northern Europe will be invaded by multiple bark beetle species in the future. These findings contribute to understanding the distributional dynamics of bark beetles in Europe under climate change, thereby facilitating the development of early-intervention strategies to reduce the risk and impact of species outbreaks.