A novel approach for assessing the importance of forest ecosystem services using indicators of potential and demand

Identifying the potential and demand for forest ecosystem services (FES) in a spatially explicit manner is crucial for multi-objective forest management. We developed a robust and transparent procedure for i) selecting indicators for assessing the potential and demand for three FES (timber production, recreation and nature conservation) and ii) determining their relative importance (weights) as perceived by forest planning experts from four European countries (Estonia, Finland, Poland and Slovenia) with different forestry traditions. A total of 19 indicators of FES potential and 10 of FES demand, linked to each of the three FES, were selected based on established indicators that were updated and downscaled through iterative, multistep group communication. The selected indicators describe site and stand characteristics, accessibility, infrastructure and attractiveness, legal status and forest use. Indicators describing expert assessments of FES potential and demand were also included. We applied the fuzzy Best-Worst Method to derive weights for FES indicators incorporating experts' preferences. For FES potential, evidence-based indicators relying on empirical data received higher weights, whereas for FES demand, expert-based assessments were prioritized. Pairwise statistical comparisons of indicator weights revealed notable differences in the importance assigned by experts across countries. By considering both the potential and demand for FES and combining evidence-based indicators with expert preferences, we contribute to a comprehensive and context-sensitive framework for FES assessment. Our approach enables forest planners to identify priority areas for promoting desired FES and tailor management strategies that balance multiple FES, ensuring that decisions align with ecological potential and societal demand.