Finnish Forest Sector Economic Outlook 2022–2023 : Executive Summary

Abstract

Russia’s attack on Ukraine, the resulting eco-nomic effects, and increased uncertainty weak-en the economic growth in the main export are-as of the Finnish forest industry and affect the demand, production, and export of forest indus-try products. The effects are transmitted to har-vesting volumes and stumpage prices in the Finnish roundwood markets. However, the ef-fects are industry specific. In Finland, production volumes of forest industry products are increas-ing along with the expanding production capac-ity. Some of the industries may even gain a competitive advantage from the energy crisis and rising prices affecting Central Europe. In the sawmill industry, the economic outlook has rapidly weakened, and export price of sawnwood has started to fall from the record level of the summer 2022. However, production and export volumes of sawnwood are predicted to increase 2023. Also, the demand for pulp and paper industry’s products seems still favourable. The export prices of cardboard, pulp, and paper are expected to decrease 2023, but they will still remain at a high level. The Finnish forest indus-try will be highly profitable in 2022. This fa-vourable situation will continue in 2023 as well. The fellings of industrial wood will decrease in 2022 but will increase again next year to more than 66 million cubic metres. Increasing felling volumes improve employment in forestry. After the end of the import of roundwood from Rus-sia, the demand for domestic pulpwood and stumpage prices will rise. The consumption of forest chips and the corresponding mill-gate prices are also increasing.