A new scenario architecture to capture granularity of governance within and across Shared Socioeconomic Pathways

Abstract

Scenario work is a prominent possibility to understand and address pressing socio-environmental sustainability challenges of today and tomorrow. Scenarios depict the possible futures for land-use, and land-use pressures. In this conceptual paper, we propose a novel governance-focused scenario architecture consisting of 1) Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs), or exploratory scenario archetypes, which explore future uncertainties affected by chosen drivers; 2) Shared Governance Assumptions: governance modes that define the logic of decision-making across the SSPs, and that change the future governance landscapes; and 3) Detailed Governance Assumptions: specific opportunities for agency offered by the varying future governance landscapes defined by SSP – Shared Governance Assumption combinations. We propose a six-step process to employ our scenario architecture, and use the case of land use and Arctic reindeer herding as a brief illustration. We find that our proposed scenario architecture i) offers a structured way to diversify SSP-based scenario sets and to connect SSPs strongly to policy and governance, ii) can be used to explore actor-based trade-offs, and iii) can be used to as a tool for anticipatory governance. Further work is needed to provide empirical applications of our scenario architecture and to innovatively compare and examine implications of different governance modes to targeted normative objectives (i.e. the granularity of governance) within and across SSPs.