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Cooling is a cost-efficient way to adapt to heatwaves even in high-latitude cities

dc.contributor.authorHyyrynen, Matti
dc.contributor.authorOllikainen, Markku
dc.contributor.authorKäyhkö, Janina
dc.contributor.authorSuomi, Juuso
dc.contributor.authorLintunen, Jussi
dc.contributor.authorKäyhkö, Jukka
dc.contributor.authorMäkelä, Antti
dc.contributor.authorGroundstroem, Fanny Marie
dc.contributor.authorJuhola, Sirkku
dc.contributor.departmentid4100311010
dc.contributor.departmentid4100311010
dc.contributor.orcidhttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-4635-634X
dc.contributor.organizationLuonnonvarakeskus
dc.date.accessioned2025-05-07T12:56:45Z
dc.date.accessioned2025-05-28T12:40:48Z
dc.date.available2025-05-07T12:56:45Z
dc.date.issued2025
dc.description.abstractHeatwaves pose a direct threat to human health and well-being, particularly in cities, but there is little evidence of how much adaptation is needed at high northern latitudes. Drawing on IPCC’s notion of climate risk, we develop an integrated approach to determine the economic viability of adaptation to growing mortality caused by increasing heatwaves via improved cooling of residential buildings. Accounting for the stochasticity of temperatures using Monte Carlo simulations, we estimate that the mortality will increase by tenfold relative to current mortality caused by heatwaves in Southern Finland. We carry out a cost–benefit analysis and show that adaptation to heatwaves via cooling is a feasible but costly solution in all studied cities and under all climate change scenarios. Given the high value of statistical life, lack of adaptation to increasing frequency of heatwaves would be costly to society. Adaptation to heatwaves by cooling is an effective solution: costs are 38 200 – 416 000 €/life saved, and benefits exceed the costs by 1.8 to 18 times in alternative warming scenarios. Our results suggest that it is optimal to avoid any additional heatwave-related fatalities, implying that all the people belonging to the vulnerable population should be added to a district cooling network. The net present value of the adaptation by cooling is especially affected by the choice of the value of statistical life and more research is needed to ascertain the relevant value in the Finnish society.
dc.format.bitstreamtrue
dc.format.pagerange27 p.
dc.identifier.citationHow to cite: Hyyrynen, M., Ollikainen, M., Käyhkö, J. et al. Cooling is a cost-efficient way to adapt to heatwaves even in high-latitude cities. Climatic Change 178, 96 (2025). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-025-03913-8
dc.identifier.olddbid498924
dc.identifier.oldhandle10024/556348
dc.identifier.urihttps://jukuri.luke.fi/handle/11111/22844
dc.identifier.urlhttps://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-025-03913-8
dc.identifier.urnURN:NBN:fi-fe2025050738284
dc.language.isoen
dc.okm.avoinsaatavuuskytkin1 = Avoimesti saatavilla
dc.okm.corporatecopublicationei
dc.okm.discipline520
dc.okm.internationalcopublicationon
dc.okm.julkaisukanavaoa2 = Osittain avoimessa julkaisukanavassa ilmestynyt julkaisu
dc.okm.selfarchivedon
dc.publisherSpringer Nature
dc.relation.articlenumber96
dc.relation.doi10.1007/s10584-025-03913-8
dc.relation.ispartofseriesClimatic change
dc.relation.issn0165-0009
dc.relation.issn1573-1480
dc.relation.numberinseries5
dc.relation.volume178
dc.rightsCC BY 4.0
dc.source.identifierhttps://jukuri.luke.fi/handle/10024/556348
dc.subjectclimate change adaptation
dc.subjectcost-benefit analysis
dc.subjectheatwave-related mortality
dc.subjectcooling
dc.teh41007-00206801
dc.teh41007-00268801
dc.titleCooling is a cost-efficient way to adapt to heatwaves even in high-latitude cities
dc.typepublication
dc.type.okmfi=A1 Alkuperäisartikkeli tieteellisessä aikakauslehdessä|sv=A1 Originalartikel i en vetenskaplig tidskrift|en=A1 Journal article (refereed), original research|
dc.type.versionfi=Publisher's version|sv=Publisher's version|en=Publisher's version|

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