Environment-induced growth changes in forests of Finland revisited - a follow-up using an extended data set from the 1960s to the 2020s

Abstract

After a rising trend for 1971 – 2013, during which the annual volume growth of the forests of Finland increased by more than 70 %, a recent reduction has been observed. We analyzed the development of annual growth in the forest of Finland, focusing on the component not explainable by changes in growing stock. The data originate from nine consecutive Finnish National Forest Inventories. In the data, diameter increments were measured from increment cores and tree height increments from standing sample trees in the field. We developed models predicting periodic (5 years) annual volume increment per hectare with properties of the trees and stands as predictor variables. Deviations from model-predicted values were interpreted to be induced by environmental variation. The development was analyzed for all tree species combined and separately for three species groups: Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.), Norway spruce (Picea abies (L.) Karst.) and broadleaves. We observed a rising growth trend not solely explainable by increased growing stock. The species groups produced rather a similar pattern in different parts of Finland: from the 1960s to the mid-1990s, the observed volume increment was mainly below the model-predicted level, thereafter above it. During the current century, the difference between observed and predicted annual volume increment has shown a downward trend for Scots pine. For Norway spruce, the difference has continued to increase in southern Finland, but shows little change in the north. For broadleaved species, the difference between measured and predicted increment shows a recent increase as well, though not as large as for Norway spruce. The geographical pattern of the environment-induced increment component was described in more detail via maps using a 75 km × 75 km grid. The changing environment has enhanced forest productivity in Finland over a period of nearly six decades, but recent years have not been favorable for Scots pine, which represents 50 % of the growing stock volume of the forests of Finland.