The uncertainty of crop yield projections is reduced by improved temperature response functions
Wang, Enli; Martre, Pierre; Zhao, Zhigan; Ewert, Frank; Maiorano, Andrea; Rötter, Reimund P.; Kimball, Bruce A.; Ottman, Michael J.; Wall, Gerard W.; White, Jeffrey W.; Reynolds, Matthew P.; Alderman, Phillip D.; Aggarwal, Pramod K.; Anothai, Jakarat; Basso, Bruno; Biernath, Christian; Cammarano, Davide; Challinor, Andrew J.; De Sanctis, Giacomo; Doltra, Jordi; Fereres, Elias; Garcia-Vila, Margarita; Gayler, Sebastian; Hoogenboom, Gerrit; Hunt, Leslie A.; Izaurralde, Roberto C.; Jabloun, Mohamed; Jones, Curtis D.; Kersebaum, Kurt C.; Koehler, Ann-Kristin; Liu, Leilei; Müller, Christoph; Kumar, Soora Naresh; Nendel, Claas; O'Leary, Garry; Olesen, Jørgen E.; Palosuo, Taru; Priesack, Eckart; Rezaei, Ehsan Eyshi; Ripoche, Dominique; Ruane, Alex C.; Semenov, Mikhail A.; Shcherbak, Jurii; Stöckle, Claudio; Stratonovitch, Pierre; Streck, Thilo; Supit, Iwan; Tao, Fulu; Thorburn, Peter; Waha, Katharina; Wallach, Daniel; Wang, Zhimin; Wolf, Joost; Zhu, Yan; Asseng, Senthold (2017)
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Wang, Enli
Martre, Pierre
Zhao, Zhigan
Ewert, Frank
Maiorano, Andrea
Rötter, Reimund P.
Kimball, Bruce A.
Ottman, Michael J.
Wall, Gerard W.
White, Jeffrey W.
Reynolds, Matthew P.
Alderman, Phillip D.
Aggarwal, Pramod K.
Anothai, Jakarat
Basso, Bruno
Biernath, Christian
Cammarano, Davide
Challinor, Andrew J.
De Sanctis, Giacomo
Doltra, Jordi
Fereres, Elias
Garcia-Vila, Margarita
Gayler, Sebastian
Hoogenboom, Gerrit
Hunt, Leslie A.
Izaurralde, Roberto C.
Jabloun, Mohamed
Jones, Curtis D.
Kersebaum, Kurt C.
Koehler, Ann-Kristin
Liu, Leilei
Müller, Christoph
Kumar, Soora Naresh
Nendel, Claas
O'Leary, Garry
Olesen, Jørgen E.
Palosuo, Taru
Priesack, Eckart
Rezaei, Ehsan Eyshi
Ripoche, Dominique
Ruane, Alex C.
Semenov, Mikhail A.
Shcherbak, Jurii
Stöckle, Claudio
Stratonovitch, Pierre
Streck, Thilo
Supit, Iwan
Tao, Fulu
Thorburn, Peter
Waha, Katharina
Wallach, Daniel
Wang, Zhimin
Wolf, Joost
Zhu, Yan
Asseng, Senthold
Julkaisusarja
Nature Plants
Volyymi
3
Sivut
Article 17102
Macmillan Publishers Limited
2017
Tiivistelmä
Increasing the accuracy of crop productivity estimates is a key element in planning adaptation strategies to ensure global food security under climate change. Process-based crop models are effective means to project climate impact on crop yield, but have large uncertainty in yield simulations. Here, we show that variations in the mathematical functions currently used to simulate temperature responses of physiological processes in 29 wheat models account for >50% of uncertainty in simulated grain yields for mean growing season temperatures from 14 °C to 33 °C. We derived a set of new temperature response functions that when substituted in four wheat models reduced the error in grain yield simulations across seven global sites with different temperature regimes by 19% to 50% (42% average). We anticipate the improved temperature responses to be a key step to improve modelling of crops under rising temperature and climate change, leading to higher skill of crop yield projections.
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