Assessing the feasibility of forest policy implementation under climate change: a case study on Scotland’s National Forest Estate

Abstract

A forest simulation enabling evaluation of species and forest management system choice was used to assess forest resilience under climate change of Scotland’s National Forest Estate. The simulation quantified the trade-offs in ecosystem service delivery under the combined effects of forest management trajectories and climate change. The simulation showed opportunities for maintaining forest resilience using more diverse tree species and management systems. The simulation can be used to demonstrate achievable national targets of e.g. timber production, carbon sequestration and biodiversity under climate change.