Modelling and mapping the abundance of lingonberry (Vaccinium vitis-idaea L.) in Norway

Lingonberry (Vaccinium vitis-idaea L.) grows in a range of nature types in the boreal zone, and understanding factors affecting the abundance of the plant, as well as mapping its spatial distribution, is important. The abundance of the species can be an indicator of ecosystem changes, and lingonberry can also be a source for commercial utilisation of berry resources. Using country-wide data from 6404 field plots of the Norwegian national forest inventory (NFI), we modelled the relationship between lingonberry cover and airborne laser scanning (ALS) and satellite metrics and bioclimatic variables describing the forest structure, terrain, soil properties and climate using a generalised mixed-effects model with a quasipoisson distribution. The validation carried out with an independent set of 2124 NFI plots indicated no obvious bias in predictions. The most important predictors were found to be interactions between dominant tree species, stand basal area and latitude, as well as the reflectance in the near-infrared band from Sentinel-2 satellite imagery, the dominant height based on the ALS variable and the long-term mean summer (June–August) temperature. The results provide an indicator of the effects of global warming, as well as the possibility of giving forest management prescriptions that favour lingonberry and locating the most abundant lingonberry sites in Norwegian forests.