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Kandel, Arndt Piayda, Sandhya Karki, Poul Erik Lærke & Mats Höglind Title: Modelling CO2 and CH4 emissions from drained peatlands with grass cultivation by the BASGRA-BGC model Year: 2021 Version: Published version Copyright: The Author(s) 2021 Rights: CC BY-NC-ND 4.0 Rights url: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/ Please cite the original version: Huang, X., Silvennoinen, H., Kløve, B., Regina, K., Kandel, T.P., Piayda, A., Karki, S., Lærke, P.E., Höglind, M. (2021). Modelling CO2 and CH4 emissions from drained peatlands with grass cultivation by the BASGRA-BGC model. Science of The Total Environment 765, 144385. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.144385. Science of the Total Environment 765 (2021) 144385 Contents lists available at ScienceDirect Science of the Total Environment j ourna l homepage: www.e lsev ie r .com/ locate /sc i totenvModelling CO2 and CH4 emissions from drained peatlands with grass cultivation by the BASGRA-BGC modelXiao Huang a,⁎, Hanna Silvennoinen b, Bjørn Kløve c, Kristiina Regina d, Tanka P. Kandel e, Arndt Piayda f, Sandhya Karki g, Poul Erik Lærke h, Mats Höglind a a Norwegian Institute of Bioeconomy Research, Klepp Station, Norway b Norwegian Institute of Bioeconomy Research, Ås, Norway c Water, Energy and Environmental Engineering Research Unit, University of Oulu, Oulu, Finland d Bioeconomy and Environment Unit, Natural Resources Institute Finland, Jokioinen, Finland e Noble Research Institute, LLC, Ardmore, USA f Thünen Institute for Climate-Smart Agriculture, Braunschweig, Germany g Delta Water Management Research Unit, USDA-ARS, Jonesboro, USA h Department of Agroecology, Aarhus University, Interdisciplinary Centre for Climate Change, Tjele, DenmarkH I G H L I G H T S G R A P H I C A L A B S T R A C T• Dual-porosity framework is used for the soil properties of drained peatlands. • Model outputs represent the trade-offs between CO2 and CH4 under different WTLs. • SOM decomposition rate could vary sig- nificantly under the sameWTLs. • This model can be used to optimize water table management for drained peatlands.⁎ Corresponding author. E-mail address: xiao.huang@nibio.no (X. Huang). https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.144385 0048-9697/© 2020 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ba b s t r a c ta r t i c l e i n f oArticle history: Received 27 September 2020 Received in revised form 11 November 2020 Accepted 4 December 2020 Available online 25 December 2020 Editor: Jurgen Mahlknecht Keywords: Cultivated peatlands Drainage WTL CO2 CH4 BASGRA-BGC modelCultivated peatlands under drainage practices contribute significant carbon losses from agricultural sector in the Nordic countries. In this research, we developed the BASGRA-BGC model coupled with hydrological, soil carbon decomposition and methane modules to simulate the dynamic of water table level (WTL), car- bon dioxide (CO2) and methane (CH4) emissions for cultivated peatlands. The field measurements from four experimental sites in Finland, Denmark and Norway were used to validate the predictive skills of this novel model under different WTL management practices, climatic conditions and soil properties. Com- pared with daily observations, the model performed well in terms of RMSE (Root Mean Square Error; 0.06–0.11 m, 1.22–2.43 gC/m2/day, and 0.002–0.330 kgC/ha/day for WTL, CO2 and CH4, respectively), NRMSE (Normalized Root Mean Square Error; 10.3–18.3%, 13.0–18.6%, 15.3–21.9%) and Pearson's r (Pearson correlation coefficient; 0.60–0.91, 0.76–0.88, 0.33–0.80). The daily/seasonal variabilities were therefore captured and the aggregated results corresponded well with annual estimations. We further provided an example on the model's potential use in improving the WTL management to mitigate CO2 and CH4 emis- sions while maintaining grass production. At all study sites, the simulated WTLs and carbon decomposition rates showed a significant negative correlation. Therefore, controlling WTL could effectively reduce carbon.V. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/). X. Huang, H. Silvennoinen, B. Kløve et al. Science of the Total Environment 765 (2021) 144385losses. However, given the highly diverse carbon decomposition rates within individual WTLs, adding indi- cators (e.g. soil moisture and peat quality) would improve our capacity to assess the effectiveness of specific mitigation practices such as WTL control and rewetting. © 2020 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier B.V. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/).1. Introduction Northern peatlands sequester carbon dioxide (CO2) effectively (Yu, 2012). With waterlogged and anaerobic conditions, they are also signif- icant sources of methane (CH4) to the atmosphere (Harriss et al., 1985; Smith et al., 2004). In the Nordic countries, peat soils are important for agriculture, accounting for about 2.0% (Nielsen et al., 2013), 7.0% (Kløve et al., 2010), 8.7% (Berglund and Berglund, 2010) and 10.4% (Myllys et al., 2012) of the total agriculture area in Denmark, Norway, Sweden and Finland, respectively. Cultivated peatlands in this region are extensively drained for crop growth and grasslands of animal hus- bandry in particular (Kasimir et al., 2018). However, drainage acceler- ates the soil organic carbon (SOC) decomposition by introducing more oxygen into the soil, thus shifting the peatlands from C sinks into signif- icant sources of CO2 (Grønlund et al., 2008). Assessing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from cultivation practices is important in the Nordic countries as they make efforts to realize their goals for both improved food security (Forbord and Vik, 2017) and mitigation of GHG emissions (e.g. EU's 2030 climate & energy framework to cut at least 40% GHG emissions). In the future, prolonged growing seasons in boreal regions may provide opportunities for agricultural development (Wiréhn, 2018), while warmer and drier soil environment could further increase SOC decomposition.With increase temperature and droughts peatlands can secure grass production, but their carbon stocks will be more vul- nerable. Due to the high emission rate, mitigating emissions from drained peatland could be an effective option to tackle climate change (Leifeld and Menichetti, 2018) compared to the C sequestration strate- gies for mineral soils as suggested by the 4‰ initiative of the Lima Paris Action Agenda (Chabbi et al., 2017). Consequently, finding environment-friendly management practices for drained peatlands is of great importance for the Nordic agriculture (Kløve et al., 2017). Estimation of annual GHG emissions using data from field experi- ments on cultivated peatlands (Berglund and Berglund, 2011; Kløve et al., 2010; Maljanen et al., 2003; Regina and Alakukku, 2010) that are usually short in duration and have infrequent sampling, may fail to capture important feedbacks from management practices. Modelling methods have been established to simulate the biogeochemical pro- cesses of cultivated peatlands with higher spatio-temporal resolution than those available from field experiments. The empirical regression approaches (e.g. Kandel et al., 2017; Lloyd and Taylor, 1994), which di- rectly build the relationship between GHG emission rate and certain measured variables, are popular tools for interpolating and upscaling the existing measurements (Eickenscheidt et al., 2015; Karki et al., 2019; Lohila et al., 2003). Such data-driven methods, however, could be limited in integrating complex environmental factors to predict opti- mal management schemes. On the other hand, process-based models describe the interactions between plants and soil environment in more detail than the empirical regression approaches. Thesemodels, including biogeochemical models (Frolking et al., 2001; Kleinen et al., 2012; Mezbahuddin et al., 2016), global vegetation models (Wania et al., 2009) and land surface models (Qiu et al., 2018; Qiu et al., 2019; Shi et al., 2015), have been developed to simulate the C dynamics of Northern peatlands. However, we identi- fied three key challenges for current process-based models related to the modelling of biogeochemical processes of the cultivated peatlands with grass cultivation in the Nordic region: (i) While grass cultivation accounts for the highest fraction of cultivated peatlands in this region, most of the current models with specially developed peat soil module (e.g. Orchidee-Peat, CLIMBER2-LPJ) mainly focus on forest ecosystems.2As the interaction between plants and soil largely controls the GHG emissions and C balance, a proper module simulating the grass growth and its winter survival in the Northern environment is needed; (ii) Un- like pristine peatlands with relatively stable water table level (WTL), cultivated peatlands exhibit obvious WTL variations due to drainage and climate. A detailed hydrological module with higher temporal reso- lution than seasonal or annual step is needed considering the specific properties of drained peat soils; (iii) Lack of corresponding modelling for different drainage and irrigation practices restricts model applica- tions for exploring management effects on the GHG emissions. To address these challenges, we developed the new model version BASGRA-BGC (BASic GRAss model – BioGeochemical Cycle). The model specifically simulates the C balance, including CO2 and CH4 emis- sions, and biomass productivity, from drained peatlands with grass cul- tivation. The original BASGRA model is a process-based model for simulating the daily-step dynamics of leaves, roots, tillers and biomass (Höglind et al., 2016) with detailed processes for cold hardening and dehardening. The latestmodel version BASGRA_N also couplesmodules of N supply from soil and N allocation among plant organs (Höglind et al., 2020). BASGRA_N and its predecessor has been well validated for grass growthmodelling in the Nordic region and used to investigate different schemes to improve grassland management including ideotype design and optimal fertilization (Hjelkrem et al., 2017; Korhonen et al., 2018; Van Oijen and Höglind, 2016; Woodward et al., 2020). We developed the BASGRA-BGC version based on BASGRA_N by coupling modules from SWAT, Century and DNDC models. The objectives of this paper are to: (i) describe the new features of BASGRA-BGC which was developed to simulate WTL,CO2 and CH4 emissions from drained peatlands with grass cultivation; (ii) evaluate its performance for WTL, CO2 and CH4 prediction against data from field experiments in Finland, Denmark and Norway; (iii) use the model to propose improved drainage schemes to mitigate GHG emis- sions and maintain grass production. 2. Model development BASGRA_N model, mainly focusing on the simulation of physiologi- cal processes of the above-ground grass growth, represents soil physical and biological processes in a rather simplisticway,which limits its capa- bility to simulate the complex biogeochemical interactions characteriz- ing cultivated peat soils. For example, in BASGRA_N the vertical soil column is represented as one single layer, and the current version does not simulate draining process and CH4 emissions. Therefore, the new version BASGRA-BGC uses a multi-layer soil structure (user de- fined) for the vertical soil column with layer-dependent simulation of hydrological and biogeochemical processes, including CO2 and CH4 emissions. Detailed functions are described in the following Sections 2.1–2.3. The list of variable abbreviations used in this paper is provided in Table 1. 2.1. Hydrological processes Compared with mineral soils, peat soils have a higher SOC content with lower bulk density and larger total porosity. The dominating macro-scale pores in undecomposed peat can actively transmit water to infiltration, evapotranspiration and drainage (Rezanezhad et al., 2016). However, for degraded peat with long drainage history, the plant debris is broken down into smaller fragments and a high propor- tion of large pores is therefore turned into small and closed pores Table 1 Explanation of variable abbreviations. Name Description Unit Equation State variable SWm,i/SWim,i The soil water content of mobile/immobile part in the ith soil layer mm·H2O (1a)/(1b) θm,i/θim,i The relative soil moisture in mobile/immobile part in the ith soil layer mm/mm (1c) Tsoilz,j The soil temperature at depth z on the jth day of the year °C (5) Tair The average annual air temperature °C (5) Tsurf The surface temperature °C (5)a CLitk (CPk) Litter carbon pool: k=1, labile pool; k=2, resistant pool g·C/m2 (9) CSOMk (CPk) Soil organic carbon pool: k=1, very labile pool; k=2, labile pool; k=3, passive pool g·C/m2 (9) NSH/NRT The nitrogen content in shoot/root g·N/m2 (11a)/(11b)a CST/CLV/CRT/CSTUB The carbon content in stem/leaf/root/stubble g·C/m2 a DOC The dissolved organic carbon in the soil layer g·C/m2 (15a) H2 The hydrogen content in each soil layer g·H/m2 (15b) anf The anaerobic fraction in each soil layer – (12) FC The soil water content at field capacity in each soil layer mm·H2O (12) SAT The saturated soil water content in each soil layer mm·H2O (12) Non-state variables Wmm,i/Wmim,i The water melting rate in mobile/immobile part in the ith soil layer mm·H2O/day (1a)/(1b) Wfm,i/Wfim,i The water freezing rate in mobile/immobile part in the ith soil layer mm·H2O/day (1a)/(1b) Ii The water infiltration rate in the ith soil layer mm·H2O/day (2) Es,i The actual soil evaporation rate in the ith soil layer mm·H2O/day (3) Et,i The actual transpiration rate in the ith soil layer mm·H2O/day (4) Di The drainage rate in the ith soil layer mm·H2O/day (1a) Exi The water flux from mobile part to immobile part in the ith soil layer mm·H2O/day (1c) dzi The depth of the ith soil layer mm (1c) SWexcess,i The infiltrative volume of water in the ith soil layer mm·H2O/day (S2a) TT The travel time for infiltration hr (S2b) Es,lower,i/Es,upper,i The cumulative evaporation rate until the lower/upper boundary of the ith soil layer mm·H2O/day (S3a) Et,lower,i/Et,upper,i The cumulative transpiration rate until the lower/upper boundary of the ith soil layer mm·H2O/day (S4a) df The depth factor – (S5a) Dpot The potential draining rate mm·H2O/day (6)(7)(8) m The height from water table to draining pipes mm (6) t The height from water table to soil surface mm (7) CFk The carbon flux leaving the kth carbon pool g·C /m2/day (9) CFhr,k The heterotrophic flux from the decomposition of the kth carbon pool g·C/m2/day (10) MRsh/MRrt The maintenance respiration rate in shoot/root g·C/m2/day (11a) GRsh/GRrt The growth respiration rate in shoot/root g·C/m2/day a andeck The anaerobic decomposition rate of the kth SOM carbon pool g·C/m2/day (13) RTdec The root exudation rate in each soil layer g·C/m2/day (14) CH4,p1/CH4,p2/CH4,p The CH4 production rate from DOC/H2/total g·C/m2/day (16a)/(16b)/(16c) CH4,trans The CH4 transport rate g·C/m2/day (18) θrt The relative soil moisture in the root zone – (19) θrt,sat The relative saturated soil moisture in the root zone – (19) Parameter coefex The coefficient for water flux between mobile and immobile parts day−1 (1c) coefl The lag coefficient that represent the influence of the previous day's temperature – (5) Ke The effective lateral hydraulic conductivity mm·H2O/day (S6a) de The corrected height from draining pipes to soil bottom mm (S6b) g Dimensionless factor – (S7) Dm The maximum open ditch drainage rate mm·H2O/day (8) Ds Scaling coefficient for Dm – (8) Ws Scaling coefficient for maximum soil moisture – (8) θs Average soil porosity from water table to soil bottom – (8) r0,k The maximum decomposition rate coefficient for the kth carbon pool yr−1 (9) ftotal The combined decomposition scalar considering temperature, soil moisture and depth factors – (S9a) rfk The respiration fractions of litter and SOM pools – (10) rm,sh/rm,rt The base maintenance respiration rate in shoot/root g·C/g·N/day (11a)/(11b) fm,t The temperature scalar for maintenance respiration – (S11) ran,k The maximum anaerobic decomposition rate coefficient for the kth SOM carbon pool yr −1 (13) ftotal,an The combined anaerobic decomposition scalar considering temperature and depth factors – (S13b) rRT The maximum exudation rate coefficient day−1 (14) CH4,DOC/CH4,H2 The maximum rate of CH4 production from DOC/H2 g·C/m2/day (S16c) kmDOC/kmH2 The half saturation constant for DOC/H2 g·C/m3 g·H/m3 (16a)/(16b) CH4,oxid,max The maximum oxidation rate of CH4 in each soil layer g·C/m2/day (S17a) ftotal,oxid The combined oxidation scalar considering temperature and depth factors – (S17b) fp/fe/fd The coefficient of plant transport/bubble ebullition/diffusion – (S18) Kaer The coefficient of deficient aeration conditions – (19) θair The anaerobiosis point of relative water moisture – (19) Input L The distance between draining pipes mm (6)(7) b The height from soil surface to draining pipes mm (7) r The radius of draining pipes mm (7) a Calculated from the original BASGRA_N model. X. Huang, H. Silvennoinen, B. Kløve et al. Science of the Total Environment 765 (2021) 144385 3 X. Huang, H. Silvennoinen, B. Kløve et al. Science of the Total Environment 765 (2021) 144385(Bragazza et al., 2009). As a result, we used a dual-porosity framework that includes both “mobile zone”wherewater canmove easily and “im- mobile zone” where water movement is negligible to simulate the hy- drological processes in drained peat soils (Binet et al., 2013; Rezanezhad et al., 2016). As shown in Fig. 1, the immobile zone can only exchange water and solution with the mobile part. The overall mass balance equations (one dimension) for soil water modelling are as follows: dSWm;i dt ¼ Ii−1 þWmm;i−Ii−Es;i−Et;i−Di−Wfm;i þ Exi ð1aÞ dSWim;i dt ¼Wmim;i−Wf im;i−Exi ð1bÞ Exi ¼ coef ex∙ θm;i−θim;i   ∙dzi ð1cÞ In the BASGRA-BGC model, we used the methods from the SWAT (Soil &Water Assessment Tool)model (Arnold and Fohrer, 2005) to cal- culate (i) soil water infiltration (Eq. (2)); (ii) the partition of total soil evaporation and transpiration in each layer (Eqs. (3) & (4)); (iii) the soil temperature as well as the thawing/freezing processes (Eq. (5)). We present the key functions in the main text and refer to the supple- mentary material for a full description of the detailed processes. Based on Eq. (5), the soil temperature at the center of each soil layer is com- puted and then linearly interpolated to get the soil temperature at any depth within the whole soil column. We assumed that the correspond- ing soil water in each soil layer is uniformly distributed and that the water within soil depth with below-zero temperature gets frozen. Infiltration rate: Ii ¼ SWexcess;i∙ 1− exp −24:0 TT    ð2Þ Soil evaporation rate: Es;i ¼ Es;lower;i−Es;upper;i ð3Þ Transpiration rate: Et;i ¼ Et;lower;i−Et;upper;i ð4ÞFig. 1. The dual-porosity framework for hydrological modelling in the BASGRA-BGC model. 4Soil temperature: Tsoilz; j ¼ coef l∙Tsoilz; j−1 þ 1:0−coef lð Þ∙ df ∙ Tair−Tsurf  þ Tsurf  ð5Þ Subsurface drainage is a popular practice in the Nordic region to lower the WTL of peatlands (Kløve et al., 2017). Tile drainage (here re- fers to subsurface drainage using tile, PVC pipe and other materials) to- gether with open ditch is a common way to extensively drain the peatlandwhile open ditch drainage only without pipe is another option which is less frequently used in this region. In BASGRA-BGC, the Hooghoudt (1940) steady-state (Eq. (6)) and Kirkham (1957) tile (Eq. (7)) equations are used to simulate the tile drainage flux with WTL below and above the soil surface. For open ditch drainage, we use the conceptual Arno model formulation (Franchini and Pacciani, 1991) to model the baseflow into the nearby ditch (Eq. (8)). After the potential drainage flux has been calculated, the actual drainage rate Di in each layer is computed from thewater table surface until the bottom layer to meet the total drainage potential. Tile drainage with water table below soil surface: Dpot ¼ 8Kedemþ 4Kem 2 L2 ð6Þ Tile drainage with water table above soil surface: Dpot ¼ 4πKe∙ t þ b−rð ÞgL ð7Þ Open ditch drainage: Dpot ¼ DsDm Wsθs ∙θ; θ≤Wsθs DsDm Wsθs ∙θþ Dm∙ 1−DsDmWs   ∙ θ−Wsθs θs−Wsθs  2 ; θ > Wsθs 8>< >: ð8Þ 2.2. Soil decomposition and plant respiration The decomposition of litter material and soil organic matter (SOM) is modelled using the Century-based cascade method (first-order decay model) between different carbon pools (Parton, 1996).We define two lit- ter pools and three SOM carbon pools (see Table 1). The detailed routines of carbon transition among different soil and plant carbon pools are shown in Fig. 2. The main functions used in this module are from CLM (Common Land Model) version 5.0 (Lawrence et al., 2019). The dual- porosity framework in the multi-layer soil modelling in Section 2.1 is still applicable for decomposition processes. We do not explicitly label the soil layer and pore region where the variable belongs to. In BASGRA-BGC model, decomposition is modelled without consid- ering nitrogen stress by assuming sufficient fertilizer input could signif- icantly alleviate nitrogen limitation. Therefore, the carbon fluxes leaving the upstream pools in each soil layer are calculated as: CFk ¼ dCPk dt ¼ CPk∙r0;k∙ f total ð9Þ The soil respiration, as the CO2 emissions from the soil, aremodelled as: CFhr;k ¼ CFk∙rf k ð10Þ Meanwhile, as the plant maintenance respiration has not been modelled in the BASGRA_Nmodel,we add the simulation of plantmain- tenance respiration rate as follows: MRsh ¼ NSH∙rm;sh∙ f m;t ð11aÞ MRrt ¼ NRT∙rm;rt ∙ f m;t ð11bÞ Fig. 2. The pool structure, carbon transition and respiration in the decomposition module of the BASGRA-BGC model (see Table 1 for the explanation of abbreviations). X. Huang, H. Silvennoinen, B. Kløve et al. Science of the Total Environment 765 (2021) 1443852.3. Methane modelling In BASGRA-BGC, we follow DNDC model's routine for CH4 produc- tion (Fumoto et al., 2008) and simplify parts of its functions to simulate the CH4 production, oxidation and transport processes (see Fig. 3). Hydrogen (H2) and dissolved organic carbon (DOC) released from root exudation and SOM decomposition are used as electron donors in the reductive reactions of CH4 production in hydrogenotrophic and acetoclastic methanogenesis, respectively. Thereafter the produced CH4 is assumed to be transported and emitted to the atmosphere through three main pathways: (i) plants' vascular tissues; (ii) ebulli- tion; (iii) diffusion. Both the atmospheric CH4 and that produced in deeper soil layers are assumed to be consumed when passing theFig. 3. The schematic description of methane module in the BASGRA 5aerobic zone of soil matrix. The dual-porosity framework in the multi- layer soil modelling in Section 2.1 is still applicable in this CH4 module. A simple function based on soil water content is developed to deter- mine the anaerobic fraction in each soil layer: anf ¼ 0:01; SW < FC 0:01þ 0:99∙ SW−FC SAT−FC ; SW ≥FC ( ð12Þ The SOM anaerobic decomposition (assumed as Eq. (S13)) rate in each soil layer modelled as: andeck ¼ CSOMk∙ran;k∙ f total;an∙anf ð13Þ-BGC model (see Table 1 for the explanation of abbreviations). X. Huang, H. Silvennoinen, B. Kløve et al. Science of the Total Environment 765 (2021) 144385The root exudation process in each soil layer is computed as: RTdec ¼ CRT ∙rRT ð14Þ As a result, the DOC and H2 generated in these two processes can be calculated for soil layers. Meanwhile, DOC can be exchanged between mobile and immobile pores and the exchange amount is proportional to the water exchange volume dDOC dt ¼ RTdecþ X3 k¼1 andeck∙ 1:0−rf kð Þð Þ ð15aÞ dH2 dt ¼ X3 k¼1 andeck∙2:0=72:0ð Þ ð15bÞ The production of CH4 includes two parts: (i) The reaction of DOC; (ii) The reaction of H2 and CO2. CH4;p1 ¼ CH4;DOC ∙ DOCkmDOC þ DOC ð16aÞFig. 4. The locations of four experim 6CH4;p2 ¼ CH4;H2 ∙ H2 kmH2 þ H2 ð16bÞ CH4;p ¼ CH4;p1 þ CH4;p2 ð16cÞ The CH4 oxidation is simulated considering the aerobic fraction in each soil layer: CH4;oxid ¼ CH4;oxid; max∙ 1:0−anfð Þ∙ f total;oxid ð17Þ The CH4 transport is modelled using simple linear equation: CH4;trans ¼ CH4;p∙ f p þ f e þ f d   ð18Þ 2.4. Water stress for deficient aeration conditions Waterlogged conditions in the peat soils could result in the stress of oxygen deficit for root activities and therefore limit grass growth. As such stress is not explicitly modelled in BASGRA_N, we used the simple linear curve as in AquaCropmodel (Raes et al., 2012) to simulate the ef- fect of deficient aeration on grass transpiration in Eq. (19). Limitedent sites in the Nordic region. X. Huang, H. Silvennoinen, B. Kløve et al. Science of the Total Environment 765 (2021) 144385transpiration due to oxygen deficit could further lower the photosyn- thesis rate following the original procedure of the BASGRA_N model. Kaer ¼ 1:0; θrt < θair θrt;sat−θrt θrt;sat−θair ; θrt ≥θair 8< : ð19Þ 3. Materials 3.1. Site description We used observations from four experimental grassland sites on peatlands distributed across the Nordic region to parameterize the model and validate the model performance. The experimental sites Jokioinen, Rovaniemi, Nørreå and Bodø were located in Southern and Northern Finland, Denmark and Northern Norway, respectively (see Fig. 4 for their locations), covering a broad range of climatic con- ditions spanning from subarctic to temperate and soil properties with a long history of drainage. The general information is listed in Table 2. The main grass species are reed canary grass (PhalarisTable 2 The information of experimental sites. Site Jokioinena,b Rovaniemia,b Country Finland Finland Coordinate 60°49′N, 23°30′E 66°35′N, 26°01′E Annual precipitation (mm) 607 537 Average daily temperature (°C) 4.3 0.0 Period 1999.09.01- 2002.09.30 2000.05.01- 2002.06.30 Drainage tile drainage open ditch draina Grass species Phleum pratense and Festuca pratensis Phleum pratense a pratensis Peat depth (cm) 55 100 Soil bulk density (g/cm3) 0.51 (0–20 cm) 0.29 (0–20 cm) Organic C (%) 24.0 (0–20 cm) 45 (0–20 cm) Total N (%) 1.1 (0–20 cm) 2.5 (0–20 cm) Porosity (%) 71 (0–20 cm) 91 (0–20 cm) Saturated hydraulic conductivity (mm/h) 12 (0–20 cm) 12 (0–20 cm) 3 (20–30 cm) 1 (30–40 cm) a Regina et al., 2004. b Regina et al., 2007. c Karki et al., 2019. d Kløve et al., 2010. 7arundinacea) and poa (Poa spp.) at Nørreå but timothy (Phleum pratense) at other sites. The experiments at the sites Nørreå (Karki et al., 2019) and Bodø (Kløve et al., 2010), included multiple plots with different management treatments. Here we used the measure- ments from the control treatment (poorly drained by ditch) at Nørreå and the pipe drained plot at Bodø (other treatments at these two sites are not for drainage practices) for daily-level model validation. Meanwhile, we also used the annual estimations of CH4 emissions from flooded treatment at Nørreå and the natural plot at Bodø. The water table fluctuation was monitored continuously during the ex- perimental period by the pressure sensors installed in a perforated PVC tube (Nørreå) or groundwater wells (Bodø) and then the daily averages were used in this study. In Finnish experiments, WTLs were measured periodically in perforated plastic dipwells around the field plots. At all four sites, ER (ecosystem respiration; CO2) and CH4 emissions were measured using manual chambers. GPP (gross primary production) measurements were only available in Nørreå. These measurements were carried out periodically at intervals that varied by 7–21 days over the season depending on environmental conditions and timing of management practices (e.g. fertilization, harvest).Nørreåc Bodød Denmark Norway 56°27′N, 9°40′E 67°17′N, 14°28′E 650 1055 7.9 4.3 2015.01.01–2017.03.31 2003.08.09- 2004.11.30 ge open ditch drainage (control treatment) tile drainage (P treatment) nd Festuca Festulolium and Tall fescue Phleum pretense and Elytrigia repens 83 64 0.33 (0–18 cm); 0.31 (18–45 cm); 0.18 (45–57 cm); 0.15 (57–83 cm); 0.23 (0–24 cm); 0.19 (24–42 cm); 0.15 (42–64 cm) 38.6 (0–18 cm); 39.7 (18–45 cm); 45.0 (45–57 cm); 46.9 (57–83 cm); 42.0 (0–24 cm); 44.7 (24–42 cm); 46.6 (42–64 cm); 3.3 (0–18 cm); 3.3 (18–45 cm); 3.1 (45–57 cm); 2.8 (57–83 cm); 2.4 (0–64 cm) 83 (0–18 cm); 83 (18–45 cm); 87 (45–57 cm); 91 (57–83 cm); 83 (0–24 cm); 86 (24–42 cm); 89 (42–64 cm); 6.4 (0–18 cm); 2.1 (18–45 cm); 1.8 (45–57 cm); 1.4 (57–83 cm); 12 (0–24 cm); 14 (42–64 cm); Table 3 The parameterization scheme of the BASGRA-BGC model for the four sites. Parameter Unit Fixed parameter (Param1) Site-specific parameter (Param2) Jokioinen Rovaniemi Nørreå Bodø Parameters in the main text coefex day−1 0.10 coefl – 0.70 Dm mm·H2O/day – – 1.0 0.6 – Ds – – – 0.38 0.38 – Ws – – – 0.45 0.45 – r0,1 (Lit1) yr−1 4.5 r0,2 (Lit2) yr−1 1.4 r0,3 (SOM1) yr−1 1.0 0.6 0.7 1.0 0.7 r0,4 (SOM2) yr−1 0.027 0.03 0.02 0.04 0.02 r0,5 (SOM3) yr−1 0.0004 rfk (k=1, …,5) – 0.55, 0.45, 0.26, 0.54, 0.88 rm,sh g·C/g·N/day 0.252 0.25 0.25 0.30 0.25 rm,rt g·C/g·N/day 0.218 0.20 0.20 0.25 0.20 ran,k yr −1 0.15 0.15 0.16 0.30 0.16 rRT day−1 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.002 0.001 kmDOC g·C/m3 61.44 kmH 2 g·H/m 3 0.0266 θair – 0.85 0.75 0.75 0.90 0.75 Parameters in the supplementary materials βw – 0.5 coefp – 0.7 Q10,dec – 2.0 2.1 2.6 2.1 2.0 zτ m 0.5 θ1 – 0.04 θ2 – 0.40 Q10,m – 2.0 2.2 2.0 1.5 2.0 Q10,P – 3.0 CH4,30 g·C/g·soil/day 8.5E-5 CH4,oxid,0 g·C/m3/day 0.0008 fp,max – 0.8 fe,max – 0.4 fd,max – 0.1 X. Huang, H. Silvennoinen, B. Kløve et al. Science of the Total Environment 765 (2021) 1443853.2. Model forcing data Daily maximum/minimum temperature, global radiation, precipita- tion, wind speed and relative humidity are required climatic forcing for model running. We used the in-situ measurements for all these vari- ables at Jokioinen and Bodø sites during the simulating period. For the Rovaniemi site, there were no in-situ records for global radiation. In- stead, we used the corresponding measurements from the nearest sta- tion (Sodankylä Tähtelä) from the open dataset of the Finnish Meteorological Institute (Weather Observation). For Nørreå site, all the climatic forces are from the national weather station located ca. 5 km from the study site. Other site-specific information needed to drive the model, including peat soil properties (carbon content, poros- ity, field capacity, wilting point and hydraulic conductivity), manage- ment records (harvest date, fertilizer amount) and drainage-related parameters (e.g. the Input in Table 1) were also collected. Soil profile depth (upper peat layer+ lower soil layer) was set at 1.5m and divided into over 15 soil layers according to the detailed soil data (see Table S1). As themeasuredWTL could drop below the peat soil layer, we assumed the soil texture below the peat soil as loam or sandy soil with low hy- draulic conductivity as it is the most common condition for cultivated peatlands. 3.3. Field observations of WTL, CO2 and CH4 Wevalidated the daily-step outputs of the BASGRA-BGCmodel with field measurements includingWTL, ER and CH4 emissions. The primary WTL data was used directly without post-processing. At each site, there were 2–3 replicated plots for the same treatment and 2–3 replicated samplings of ER and CH4 for each plot and time point. We computed the average emissions per site, treatment and time point and used those for comparison with the corresponding simulated values. We did not interpolate the discontinuous ER and CH4 flux measurements into daily step to avoid introducing uncertainty with interpolating methods. Instead, we compared the measured values with model out- puts on the corresponding measuring day. The ER and CH4 emissions were usually measured atmid-day for a few hours, andmay thus signif- icantly differ from daily averages. Therefore, we corrected measured values of ER to the daily average using themodified van't Hoff equation (Davidson et al., 2006): Fave ¼ Fm∙Q10 Tave−Tmð Þ=10:0ð Þ ð20Þ where Fave and Fm are the emission rates at daily average temperature Tave andmaximum temperature Tm;Q10 is the scaling parameter.We as- sumed that the emission measurements were obtained at the daily maximum temperature and thus used the daily average temperature to correct it with Q10 = 2.0 (Petersen et al., 2012). We kept the primary CH4measurements as its emissions are influenced bymore complicated environmental factors. 3.4. Model setup and parameterization A spin-up running for drained peatlands could bring significant uncer- tainty to the soil carbon balance as detailed drainage history is usually un- available. Therefore, for the four sites in this research, we directly ran the model during the experimental period (see Table 2, period). The initial C stocks in CSOM1, CSOM2 and CSOM3 pools accounted for 3, 60 and 37% of the total organic carbon, respectively (see Table S2). As the four sites had been drained for decades, the proportions of immobile and mobile pores in the total porosity were set equally to 50% and 50% (see Table S2). We used the WTL measurement closest to the first running day and then set the initial soil water content in the layers below thewater table as sat- urated and the ones in layers above water table at field capacity. The ini- tial soil temperature across the soil columnwas set at the air temperature at the first day. Besides, we used two kinds of parameterization schemes8(see Table 3): (i) Param1: a set of fixed parameters with commonly used values in other models for all the four sites; and (2) Param2: using site- specific values for part of parameters to account for the difference in peat quality that affects the SOM decomposition potential and grass spe- cies that have different tolerances to oxygen deficit and yield potentials. We manually adjusted the parameter values to make the daily observa- tions and simulations better fit. All parameter values and their relevant sources are presented in Table S2. 3.5. Model evaluation To evaluate the model, we compared the simulated daily WTL, ER and CH4 emissions with measurements. We used three indicators RMSE (RootMean Square Error),NRMSE (Normalized RootMean Square Error) and Pearson's r (Pearson correlation coefficient) to quantify the discrepancy and correlation between simulations and observations for WTL, ER and CH4. In addition, we aggregated the model daily outputs into annual emission factors and validated the C balance using the esti- mations from relevant studies for the same sites (labelled in Table 5), in- cluding annual GPP, NEE (net ecosystem exchange), SR (soil respiration), ER and grass yield.We also compared the simulated annual emission factors of CH4 at the four sites with estimations from previous studies (labelled in Table 6) as an additional quality assessment. 4. Results 4.1. Comparison between two parameterization schemes The model outputs using two parameterizations schemes were compared with daily observations and the values of indictors were Table 4 The evaluation of the daily simulation of the BASGRA-BGC model for the four sites. Jokioinen Rovaniemi Nørreå Bodø Param1 Param2 Param1 Param2 Param1 Param2 Param1 Param2 WTL (water table level) RMSE (m) 0.06 0.06 0.10 0.10 0.105 0.103 0.11 0.11 NRMSE (%) 15.2 15.1 17.8 17.8 18.7 18.3 14.5 14.5 Pearson's r 0.58 0.60 0.91 0.91 0.62 0.63 0.79 0.79 ER (ecosystem respiration) RMSE (gC/m2/day) 1.50 1.47 1.42 1.22 3.06 2.43 1.44 1.28 NRMSE (%) 13.2 13.0 17.8 15.3 18.3 14.5 21.0 18.6 Pearson's r 0.87 0.88 0.80 0.83 0.83 0.87 0.75 0.76 CH4 RMSE (kgC/ha/day) 0.0022 0.002 0.092 0.085 0.293 0.217 0.36 0.33 NRMSE (%) 19.6 19.0 16.5 15.3 25.1 18.6 24.9 21.9 Pearson's r 0.46 0.47 0.31 0.36 0.25 0.33 0.73 0.80 X. Huang, H. Silvennoinen, B. Kløve et al. Science of the Total Environment 765 (2021) 144385shown in Table 4. The difference between the two approaches for WTL simulation is negligible as we mainly modified the biological- related parameters. However, simulations for ER and CH4 were effec- tively improved by Param2 by using site-specific values to account for the heterogeneity in peat quality, grass species, as well as the un- certainty in model structure. We also presented the comparison of these two parameterization schemes for daily average WTL, SR, PR (plant respiration), GPP and CH4 emissions in Fig. S1. Due to the higher accuracy of Param2, we present results from Param2 for fur- ther analysis in 4.2–4.5. 4.2. Simulation of WTL dynamics We presented observed daily precipitation, temperature, and WTL together with simulated WTL at Jokioinen, Rovaniemi, Nørreå and Bodø in Fig. 5. At Jokioinen (see Fig. 5a), tile drainage was important in maintaining the simulated and observed WTLs at the level of ~ −0.8mdepth.Heavy rainfall eventsfirstly supplemented thewater def- icit in the upper soil layer and therefore could not immediately raise WTL. As the site was drained down to the underlying silty loam layer with relatively slower hydraulic conductivity than that of the peat layer, the drainage potential was limited also during normal climatic conditions. At the temperate Nørreå site (see Fig. 5c) with compara- tively warm temperature in winter, the simulated and observed WTL dynamics were thus mainly controlled by the precipitation and evapo- transpiration patterns. TheWTL approached soil surface due to constant precipitation input and low drainage rate of the open ditch, although it dropped occasionally to lower level with high evapotranspiration de- mand and periodic rain-free conditions. TheWTL observations and sim- ulations at the two northernmost sites, Rovaniemi and Bodø, had the largest seasonal variability. At the Rovaniemi site (see Fig. 5b) with an open ditch, the soil freezing contributed significantly to the decline of WTL and it was often seen in cold climate. At the Bodø site (see Fig. 5d), the WTL rose to a high level (~−0.15 m) immediately after an intensive precipitation in 2003 and dropped close to the depth of the drainage pipe (~−0.95m) during a severe summer drought in 2004. 4.3. Simulation of CO2 emissions The simulated ER and SR in daily step are presented in Fig. 6 and the simulated GPP and NEE dynamics in Fig. 7. We also compared the simulated and measured GPP at Nørreå in Fig. S2. The simulated ER series generally captured the temporal pattern and magnitude and the simulated SR followed the dynamic of daily temperature except when the WTL was too high (see Fig. 5c, 2016.07–2016.08). The av- erage simulated SR at northernmost site Rovaniemi (0.9 gC/m2/ day) was lower than at Bodø (1.3 gC/m2/day) and Jokioinen (2.19gC/m2/day). The PR simulations (plant respiration; the difference between ER and SR) were mainly affected by the grass growth as PR increased rapidly with grass growth and abruptly dropped after harvest. In the winter, simulated ER and SR generally equaled as PR approximated zero due to lack of green biomass. The daily variation of PR (as well as ER) was greater than that of SR as the radiation force in the Nordic region has a strong daily-level variation due to frequent cloudiness, which significantly affects themodelling of photosynthe- sis and growth respiration. We aggregated daily outputs into yearly values and compared the C balance at Jokioinen, Nørreå and Bodø with reported values (see Table 5). The simulated annual SR was at the rate of 500–700 gC/m2/ yr in these sites (the simulated annual SR at Rovaniemi was 330 gC/ m2/yr, but no estimation was found for this site). However, due to the differences in the grass species and soil nutrient condition, the simu- lated annual GPP in Nørreå (reed canary grass with high biomass) was about 40–100% higher than in Jokioinen and Bodø (timothy with low biomass). As a result, the grassland in Nørreå was a significant carbon sink with simulated annual NEE over 500 gC/m2/yr and still remained carbon neutral with exported biomass C considered. Jokioinen and Bodø were net carbon sources based on simulated NEE due to the high decomposition rate. 4.4. Simulation of CH4 emissions The daily model outputs of CH4 emissions at the four sites demon- strated that the CH4 simulations correspond well with the measure- ments, as well as with the WTL dynamics (Fig. 8). However, in Fig. 8b-d, model outputs failed to capture the emission peaks at these sites. Comparisons of annual emissions for the ‘flooded’ treat- ment (WTL constantly at−0.03 m) in Nørreå and the ‘natural’ condi- tion (tile drainage cancelled) in Bodø are presented in Table 6 alongside with the drainage modelling. This comparison proved good performance of the BASGRA-BGC model in modelling the an- nual budget of CH4 dynamics under different managements. At Jokioinen and Bodø with tile drainage, CH4 emissions were trivial and could even be a sink for atmospheric CH4. But as the result of Bodø in ‘natural’ condition shows, the peatlands could still be a sig- nificant CH4 source once drainage is cancelled and WTL raised. At Nørreå with higher WTL and reed canary grass (higher biomass) cul- tivation, both the ‘control’ and ‘flooded’ treatments emitted larger amounts of CH4 compared to other sites. We attributed the high emissions at this site (especially under ‘flooded’ treatment) to the rapid decomposition of grass stubble, to root exudation into the SOM in comparatively higher temperatures and to the high nutrient availability. However, the BASGRA-BGC model still underestimated the annual emissions from the Nørreå site during 2016.03–2017.03. Fig. 5. The climatic conditions and hydrological simulations in the four sites. [WTL: above the soil surface (positive); below the soil surface (negative)]. X .H uang,H .Silvennoinen,B.K løve etal. Science ofthe TotalEnvironm ent765 (2021) 144385 10 Fig. 6. The simulations of peat decomposition and grass respiration in the four sites. (average and std.: themean and standard deviation ofmultiple replicatedmeasurements. The positive value of CO2 flux means the CO2 emitted from the soil-plant system into the atmosphere and vice versa.) X. Huang, H. Silvennoinen, B. Kløve et al. Science of the Total Environment 765 (2021) 1443854.5. Model application to predict CO2 and CH4 emissions and yield as affected by WTL We used the predictions in Jokioinen during 2000.10–2002.09 to show the potential of the BASGRA-BGC model to provide guidance in improving theWTLmanagement. In this case, we assumed that subsur- face irrigation could be applied to rise the average WTL to different levels, under which we predicted the corresponding annual grass yield and CO2 and CH4 emissions (see Fig. 9). We used the 100-yr global warming potential value 34 (Myhre et al., 2013) to convert CH4 emis- sions into the CO2 equivalents. In regime I of Fig. 9, grass yield couldFig. 7. The simulation of daily GPP, ER and NEE at the four sites. (The positive value of CO2 flu 11be maintained and ~200 gCO2-C m−2 yr−1 emission reduction could be achieved with WTL rising from −0.8 to −0.4 m. When the WTL was between−0.8mand−0.6m, the emission reduction is not obvious as the water table still remained in the silty loam layer. Emission de- crease rate accelerated when the WTL was between −0.6 m and −0.4mandmore of the SOC stockwas under anaerobic condition. In re- gime II, the emissionswere still reduced by 40 gCO2-Cm−2 yr−1, but the grass yield decreased simultaneously. The emission reduction rate de- creased due to the balance between decreased CO2 and increased CH4. Within this regime, the peatlands were predicted as C sinks with nega- tive CO2 equivalent. It can be explained by the lower SOC content in thex means the CO2 emitted from the soil-plant system into the atmosphere and vice versa.) Table 5 The validation of carbon balance (positive value: carbon lost to the environment; negative value: carbon absorbed from the environment). Jokioinen Nørreå Bodø Period 2001.10–2002.09 (annual); 2001.10–2002.03 (winter), 2002.04–2002.09 (summer); 2015.03–2016.02 (Year 1); 2016.03–2017.02 (Year 2); 2003.08.20–2004.11.02 Emission factor of ER (ecosystem resipiration; gC/m2/yr) Simulated: 1039 (annual) Literaturec: 1496 ± 22% (Year 1); 1490 ± 14% (Year 2); Literaturee: 1185–1236 Simulated: 1514 (Year 1); 1050 (Year 2); Simulated: 1167 Emission factor of SR (soil respiration; gC/m2/yr) Literaturea: 573 ± 245 (annual); 125 ± 71 (winter); 447 ± 145 (summer); Simulated: 589 (Year 1); 353 (Year 2); Literaturee: 578–629 Simulated: 659 (annual); 170 (winter); 489 (summer); Simulated: 609 Annual GPP (gross primary production; gC/m2/yr) Simulated: −1038 (annual); Literaturec: −1973 ± 10% (Year 1); −1862 ± 15% (Year 2); Literaturee: −1012 Simulated: −2218 (Year 1); −1595 (Year 2) Simulated: −1034 Annual NEE (net ecosystem exchange; gC/m2/yr) Literatureb: 79 ± 25 (annual) Simulated: −704 (Year 1); −545 (Year 2) Literaturee: 174–225 Simulated: 36 Simulated: 133 Yield (gC/m2/yr) Literatureb: 373 (annual) Literatured: 701 (Year 1); 535 (Year 2); Literaturee: 405 Simulated: 378 (annual) Simulated: 696 (Year 1); 532 (Year 2); Simulated: 408 Annual NEE + Exported Yield (gC/m2/yr) Simulated: 414 (annual) Simulated: −8 (Year 1); −13 (Year 2); Literaturee: 579–640 Simulated: 541 a Lohila, 2008. b Lohila et al., 2004. c Karki et al., 2019. d Kandel et al., 2020. e Kløve et al., 2010. X. Huang, H. Silvennoinen, B. Kløve et al. Science of the Total Environment 765 (2021) 144385upper peat layer at that site (low SR), and the simulation is for timothy under deficient aeration (low PR) instead of nature vegetation commu- nity with high WTL. In regime III with higher WTL, the growth of timo- thy was greatly limited and the CH4 production accelerated under the anaerobic condition. The emissions increased unless timothy was re- placed by other grass species with high anaerobic tolerance. Based on the model prediction, the current drainage practices with WTL at −0.8m creates a comfortable zone for grass growth, but had the highest emissions. As a result, we think that a WTL rise up to (~−0.6 m) would be feasible for sustained grass production. Farmersmay also take further actions with the help of the model predictions to meet their specific targets. 5. Discussion 5.1. Model performance We used the dual-porosity framework to simulate the soil moisture under drainage practices for cultivated peatlands. The indicator RMSE demonstrated the “good” performance of WTL modelling with its value less than 15 cm at all the four sites (Mohammadighavam and12Kløve, 2016) and it tended to be better than Orchidee-Peat model (24.40–25.93 cm; Qiu et al., 2018). Meanwhile, compared with the em- pirical methods to calculate ER, the BASGRA-BGC model (0.76–0.88) showed similar (0.71–0.90; Kandel et al., 2013) or even better (0.10; Lohila et al., 2003) skills in terms of r values to capture the temporal dy- namics of ER. However, unlike these empirical models that generally target limited variables and need grass-related measurements (e.g. LAI) as inputs, the BASGRA-BGCmodel could providemore comprehen- sive outputs including grass growth and soil biogeochemical processes. Meanwhile, the accuracy of the BASGRA-BGC model for cultivated peatlands was also comparable with other process-based biogeochemi- cal models. For example, r values varied between 0.37 and 0.85 and the averaged errors vary between 0.0% and 26% for CH4 emissions using DNDC model (Deng et al., 2015). Besides, r value was 0.78 and RMSE was 0.83 gC/m2/day for ER using Orchidee-Peat model (Qiu et al., 2018). Compared with ecological models focusing more on soil biologi- cal processes and hydrological model focusing on soil water dynamics, the BASGRA-BGC model showed its advantage on integrating different water management practices and GHG emissions into model simula- tion. Therefore, it could not onlymodel GHG emissions, but also provide useful predictions to improve the field management. Fig. 8. The daily CH4 flux at the four sites. (The positive value of CH4 flux means CH4 emitted from peat soils and vice versa.) Table 6 The comparison between simulated annual CH4 flux and estimations. Site Period Simulation (kgC/ha/yr) Estimation (kgC/ha/yr) Jokioinen 2000.09–2001.08 −0.14 −0.21 ± 0.18a 2001.09–2002.08 −0.04 −0.20 ± 0.15a Rovaniemi 2000.09–2001.08 3.85 2.73 ± 0.98a Nørreå 2015.03.05–2016.03.04 Control: 31.8 Flooded: 615 Control: 30 ± 25b Flooded: 610 ± 170b 2016.03.05–2017.03.04 Control: 68.2 Flooded: 634 Control: 70 ± 30b Flooded: 870 ± 130b Bodø 2003.08.20–2004.11.02 Drainage: 2.60 Natural: 43.62 Drainage: 2.06c Natural: 48.58c a Regina et al., 2007. b Kandel et al., 2020. c Kløve et al., 2010. Fig. 9. The simulations of average annual CO2 equivalents (2000.10–2002-0 X. Huang, H. Silvennoinen, B. Kløve et al. Science of the Total Environment 765 (2021) 144385 13Moreover, both the site-specific results and across-site comparison demonstrated negative correlation between SR rates and WTLs and the positive relationship between CH4 emission rates and WTLs, which corresponded well with the meta-analysis in previous publications (Carlson et al., 2015; Moore and Dalva, 1993; Ojanen et al., 2010). The trade-offs between CO2 and CH4 (Hatala et al., 2012) was illustrated in Fig. 9 under different WTLs. The temperature also had significant influ- ence on CO2 and CH4 emissions (Lafleur et al., 2005) as both SR and ER were positively correlated with daily temperature (see Fig. 6). All these results guarantee the robustness of our model outputs. 5.2. Uncertainty in observed data There is inevitable uncertainty in both the measurements to param- eterize the model and the input data to drive the model. These uncer- tainty sources include: (i) As peat soils differ a lot in their quality with respect to the components and drainage history, brief information about total soil C/N contentsmay not be enough to illustrate the decom- position potential of certain peat soil. Lack of detailed peat quality9) for grass yield and GHG emission in Jokioinen under different WTLs. X. Huang, H. Silvennoinen, B. Kløve et al. Science of the Total Environment 765 (2021) 144385measurements makes it hard to systemically explain the model param- eterization. (ii) The emission measurements with manual chambers have a relatively low sampling frequency. As explained in Section 3.3, the measurements had to be adjusted to daily time step to fit the tem- poral resolution ofmodel outputs. However, the upscalingmethod itself introduced uncertainty for model validation. (iii) Direct measurements of SR with similar temporal resolution as ER were not available for any of the four sites. Althoughwe used estimated annual SR rates from pre- vious studies, they were derived either from mass balance calculations or from bare soil measurements, which are both limited in representing the real field conditions. To fully evaluate themodel with respect to CO2 emissions, and the contribution of above- and below-ground processes to the total emissions, more detailed measurements for both SR and ER are needed. The detailed properties in different depths across the soil column will reduce the predictive uncertainty. We expect the continu- ous measurements (from automatic chambers and eddy covariance) will be available for further validation of model simulations. More accu- rate approaches to estimate the SR rate from cultivated peatland are needed to determine the loss rate of C stocks.5.3. Uncertainty in model The site-specific parameterization scheme (Param2) used for model running was manually determined and therefore subjective and sub- optimal. Meanwhile, in the BASGRA-BGC model, decomposition and methane modules focus more on the biological processes of CO2 and CH4 production, while the physical transport of the gases especially through the snowpack is not included yet. The simulated ER was sys- tematically overestimated in winter compared with the measurements at Jokioinen, Rovaniemi and Bodø, whereas the model's performance was satisfying at Nørreå with warmer winters (Fig. 6). We believe that the snow cover has a buffering or storing effect on the short-term CO2 emission pattern but little impact on the annual balance. Besides, most models, including theBASGRA-BGC, donot describe the anaerobic stress for crop growth in detail. To our knowledge, the method used in Section 2.4, as well as other similar methods, are among the few ap- proaches to model the deficient aeration conditions. However,Fig. 10. The relationship between WTL and 14according to the model simulation in Nørreå, the simulated ER and GPP in Year 2 (with higher WTL) had a significant discrepancy from other estimations even though the lower grass yield implies that anaer- obic stress indeed existed for grass growth (see Table 4). As a result, a more accurate method for deficient aeration modelling is needed for the waterlogged environment of peat soils. Besides, Nørreå site under flooded condition had greater annual CH4 emissions in the second year of flooding than in the first year (see Table 5). This indicated that transition period from aerobic and anaerobic conditions should be con- sidered in modelling of CH4 emissions.5.4. Implications for field management and research In Section 4.4, we took Jokioinen as an example to illustrate how the model prediction could be used for decision support to reduce CO2 and CH4 emissions and maintain yield. In Fig. 10, we showed the simulated relationship between WTL and SR at the four sites. The corresponding air temperature was divided by 3 °C intervals to minimize the influence of temperature on peat decomposition rate. The results clearly demon- strate that thenegative correlation betweenWTL and SR ratewas signif- icant at all sites. However, the within-site variabilities of SR rate among a certain temperature interval reached up to 80%–150% even at the same WTL. Given the small temperature effect, differences in the soil moisture above the water table likely accountable for this diversity. The variation of SR rate was more obvious with deeperWTL as the cor- responding soil moisture above became more uncertain compared to shallow WTL. For example, at Jokioinen and Bodø with deep WTL, both short-term drought and heavy precipitation did not induce imme- diate changes in WTL, but the peat decomposition rate varied greatly due to the fluctuation of soil moisture in the upper SOC-rich layers. This study proved WTL is still the most important indicator for the balance between climate effects and productivity of cultivated peatlands, which is very operative for monitoring and field manage- ment. However, WTL target is most likely insufficient for optimal SOC management when other environmental factors and specific practices are not considered. For instance, to rewet the drained peat soils, surface flooding likely leads to a higher moisture in upper soil layers thanSR in different temperature intervals. X. Huang, H. Silvennoinen, B. Kløve et al. Science of the Total Environment 765 (2021) 144385subsurface irrigation despite of similar WTLs and therefore the two methods would have different peat loss performances. As a result, more indicators and information, including predictions from process- basedmodel, could be used to support developing effective waterman- agement practices and decision making. Meanwhile, we suggest that more environmental factors alongside with WTL should be taken into consideration in experimental designs to providemore accurate and ob- jective conclusions about peat carbon balance. 6. Conclusion The outputs of the BASGRA-BGC model accurately represented the short-term dynamics of WTL, CO2 and CH4 emissions, as well as the an- nual factors for GHG and grass yield. Thereafter, we used the BASGRA- BGC model to predict the effects of WTL control on GHG emissions and grass yield, which demonstrates the strength of such model to improve fieldmanagement and to balance the production versus the environmen- tal effects. Additionally, the simulations in the four sites indicate thatWTL still appears as the most straightforward indicator to prevent C loss from peatlands, but given the significant variability of peat decomposition rate under the sameWTL,more environmental factors and information should be considered in accordancewith the specific practices. To provide amore comprehensive and accurate assessment of the cultivated peatlands' dy- namics, more data with higher temporal resolution across the Nordic re- gion will be collected, and the biogeochemical processes in the BASGRA- BGC model will be further improved in the future work. CRediT authorship contribution statement Xiao Huang: Writing – original draft, Methodology, Software, Formal analysis, Visualization. Hanna Silvennoinen: Project adminis- tration, Funding acquisition, Writing – review & editing. Bjørn Kløve: Methodology, Resources, Writing – review & editing. Kristiina Regina: Methodology, Resources, Writing – review & editing. Tanka P. Kandel: Methodology, Resources, Writing – review & editing. Arndt Piayda: Methodology, Resources, Writing – review & editing. Sandhya Karki: Methodology, Resources, Writing – review & editing. Poul Erik Lærke: Methodology, Resources, Writing – review & editing. Mats Höglind:Methodology, Resources, Writing – review & editing. Declaration of competing interest The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influ- ence the work reported in this paper. Acknowledgements We acknowledge support from the project “Climate smart use of Norwegian organic soils” (MYR, 2017-2022) funded by the Research Council of Norway (decision no. 281109). Thanks go to anonymous re- viewers and editor for their constructive comments on this paper. We also thank Dr. Marcel Van Oijen for his valuable suggestions on model development. Appendix A. 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