A Global Study of Regional Trade Flows of Five Groups of Forest Products BRUCE MICHIE and STEPHEN KIN A Global Study of Regional Trade Flows of Five Groups of Forest Products BRUCE MICHIE AND STEPHEN KIN Publisher and copyright: World Forests, Society and Environment Research Program Helsinki 1999 WORLD FORESTS, SOCIETY and ENVIRONMENT RESEARCH PROGRAM Mission: Our mission is global research on world forests, society and environment in support of sustainable forest development and well-being of people. Previous Publication: Matti Palo and Jussi Uusivuori (eds.) 1999: World Forests, Society and Environment. Kluwer Academic Publishers: World Forests Volume I.Dordrecht/London/Boston European Forest Institute - EFI, Finland Finnish Forest Research Institute - METLA, Finland United Nations University/Institute of Advanced Study - UNU/lAS,Tokyo, Japan do METLA Unioninkatu 40 A FIN-001 70 Helsinki Finland Tel:+3sB 9 85705 1 Fax: +358 9 8570 5717 e-mail address: wfse-multiclient@metla.fi http://www.metla.fi/wfse/ Professor Matti Palo - Program Director Dr. Jussi Uusivuori - Deputy Program Director ISBN 951-40-1674-2 3 A Global Study of Regional Trade Flows of Five Groups of Forest Products ABSTRACT This study identifies and analyses global trade flows of major forest products by six regions.The study is divided into three parts. Part I is made up of an overview and descriptive text, part II is a display of forest products trade figures and part 111 a display of forest products trade flow maps. Important structural changes during the past decade make this study a timely addition to the understanding of global forest products trade. Prior to this study information on global forest products trade was limited to only few exporters and importers.This study uses data from the WFSE/EFI Trade Flow Database, the most detailed forest products trade flow database in the world. The study integrates annual bilaterial trade flow data covering 235 countries and territories with 26 basic forest products and various product aggregates covering the years 1 983 to 1 996. Industrial roundwood, sawnwood, panels, woodpulp, paper and misc products (other fiber pulp, recovered paper, fuelwood and charcoal) are the main product categories covered in the study. Africa, Area of the former USSR, Asia & Pacific, Europe, Latin America & Caribbean and North America (Canada & USA) are used as regional groupings. Past trade development patterns are analyzed to see how trade flows change over time.This study clearly demonstrates the value of trade flow data in studying the forest sector. Key words: global, regional, forest products, trade flows. 4 PREFACE This study is a product of the Multi Client project on Global Forest Products Trade Flows. Bruce Michie was responsible for processing data and producing charts and figures. Stephen Kin was responsible for identification of potential clients. The study is part of the World Forests, Society and Environment WFSE Research Program which is being jointly run by European Forest Institute, The Finnish Forest Research Institute and the United Nations University/Institute of Advanced Studies.The outputs are a printed study and an updateable CD-rom.The CD-rom will be available by summer 1999 and will include recently ac quired data. The purpose of the study has been to identify and include the most important regional forest prod ucts trade flows between 1983 and 1996 in an analytical format that is easily accessible to institu tions and individuals interested in the forest sector. The study gives annual trade flows for Africa, Asia & Pacific, Europe, Latin America & Caribbean, North America and the area of the former USSR. Trade flow data from 235 countries and territo ries with 26 different individual products are included. It is based on data from the WFSE/EFI Trade Flow Database the largest forest products trade flow database in the world. The database was constructed using United Nations COMTRADE data.The database con struction and management has been financed by WFSE and in part by EFl.The database has been used in various EFI research projects and reports, as well as in World Forests, Society and Environ ment book published by Kluwer Academic Pub lishers in 1999. The study is aimed at forest industries, machine manufacturers, consulting companies, banks, research and educational institutions that need detailed and quantitatively analyzed data sets for a set of forest products trade flows on an aggre gated regional basis. Jussi Uusivuori Matti Palo Deputy Program Director, WFSE Program Director, WFSE 5 ACKNOWLEDGMENTS The successful completion of this study wouldn't have been possible without contributions from various sources.We wish to express our sincere thanks to Dr. Susanna Laaksonen-Craig for the valuable suggestions and comments in the editing process.Thanks also toWFSE research program staff for their contributions. We express our appreciation for the valuable data provided by the United Nations COMTRADE statistical units in Geneva (more recently, New York). Our thanks also go to the various organizations, research institutes for their hospitality during our field work and initial contacts.Thanks to Johanna Torkkel who skillfully produced final lay-out of the printed report. Stephen Kin, MSc Marketing Researcher Bruce Michie, PhD Research Specialist 6 Fig. Id Volume of World and Eurpean Trade of Panel Products 28 Fig. I e Volume of World and European Trade of Pulp Products 29 Fig. If Volume of World and European Trade of Paper Products 30 Fig. 2a* Value of Forest Products Regional Trade with Major Trading Partners 31 Fig. 2b Volume of Roundwood Products Regional Trade with Major Trading Partners 32 7 TABLE OF CONTENTS PART I OVERVIEW TEXT I I 1 INTRODUCTION I I I. I Background I I 1.2 Purpose 1 2 1.3 Structure of the study 12 2 RECENT DEVELOPMENTS 12 2.1 WFSE/EFI Trade Flow Database 12 2.2 Recent situation 14 3 REGIONAL TRADE FLOWTRENDS 14 3.1 European Trade Trends 14 3.2 North American Trade Trends 15 3.3 Asian & Pacific Trade trends 16 3.4 Latin American & Caribbean Trade Trends 18 3.5 Area of Former Soviet Union Trade Trends 19 3.6 African Trade Trends 19 4 CONCLUSIONS 20 REFERENCES 21 LIST OF FIGURES Figure I Value of World Trade Forest Products 14 Figure 2 European Trade Trends 15 Figure 3 North American Trade Trends 16 Figure 4 Asian & Pacific Trade Trends 1 7 Figure 5 Latin America & Caribbean Trade Trends 18 Figure 6 Area of Former Soviet Union Trade Trends 19 Figure 7 African Trade Trends 20 PART II FOREST PRODUCTSTRADE FIGURES 23 LIST OF FIGURES BREAKDOWN OF PRODUCTSTRADE FLOWS Fig. I a* Value of World and European Trade of Forest Products 25 Fig. lb Volume of World and European Trade of Roundwood products 26 Fig. I c Volume of World and European Trade of Sawnwood Products... 27 8 Fig. 2c Volume of Sawnwood Products Regional Trade with Major Trading Partners 33 Fig. 2d Volume of Panel Products Regional Trade with Major Trading Partners 34 Fig. 2e Volume of Pulp Products Trade with Major Trading Partners 35 Fig. 2f Volume of Paper Products Regional Trade with Major Trading Partners 36 Fig. 3a* Value of Forest Products of Selected Regional Trade Flows 37 Fig. 3bVolume by Roundwood Products of Selected Regional Trade Flows 38 Fig. 3c Volume by Sawnwood Products of Selected Regional Trade Flows 39 Fig. 3d Volume by Panel Products of Selected Regional Trade Flows 40 Fig. 3e Volume by Pulp Products of Selected Regional Trade Flow 41 Fig. 3f Volume by Paper Products of Selected Regional Trade Flows 42 * Source: Matti Palo and Jussi Uusivuori (eds.) 1999. World Forests, Society and Environment: Kluwer Academic Publishers. World Forests Volume I. Dordrecht/London/Boston. 404 p. PART 111 FOREST PRODUCTSTRADE FLOW MAPS 43 LIST OF MAPS Map la* Value of All Forest Products Traded-Trade Flows and Trade Flow Trends (Europe) 44 Map I b Quantity of Roundwood** Products Traded-Trade Flows and Trade Flow Trends (Europe) 45 Map I c Quantity of Sawnwood Products Traded-Trade Flows and Trade Flow Trends (Europe) 46 Map Id Quantity of Panels Products Traded-Trade Flows and Trade Flow Trends (Europe) 47 Map I e Quantity of Pulp*** Products Traded-Trade Flows and Trade Flow Trends (Europe) 48 Map If Quantity of Paper Products Traded-Trade Flows and Trade Flow Trends (Europe) 49 Map 2a* Value of All Forest Products Traded-Trade Flows and Trade Flow Trends (North America) 50 Map 2b Quantity of Roundwood** Products Traded-Trade Flows and Trade Flow Trends (North America) 51 Map 2c Quantity of Sawnwood Products Traded-Trade Flows and Trade Flow Trends (North America) 52 Map 2d Quantity of Panels Products Traded-Trade Flows and Trade Flow Trends (North America) 53 Map 2e Quantity of Pulp*** Products Traded-Trade Flows and Trade Flow Trends (North America) 54 Map 2f Quantity of Paper Products Traded-Trade Flows and Trade Flow Trends (North America) 55 Map 6c Quantity of Sawnwood Products Traded-Trade Flows and Trade Flow Trends (Africa) 76 Map 6d Quantity of Panels Products Traded-Trade Flows and Trade Flow Trends (Africa) 77 Map 6e Quantity of Pulp*** Products Traded-Trade Flows and Trade Flow Trends (Africa) 78 Map 6f Quantity of Paper Products Traded-Trade Flows and 9 Map 3a* Value of All Forest Products Traded-Trade Flows and Trade Flow Trends (Asia & Pacific) 56 Map 3b Quantity of Roundwood** Products Traded-Trade Flows and Trade Flow Trends (Asia & Pacific) 57 Map 3c Quantity of Sawnwood Products Traded-Trade Flows and Trade Flow Trends (Asia & Pacific) 58 Map 3d Quantity of Panels Products Traded-Trade Flows and Trade Flow Trends (Asia & Pacific) 59 Map 3e Quantity of Pulp*** Products Traded-Trade Flows and Trade Flow Trends (Asia & Pacific) 60 Map 3f Quantity of Paper Products Traded-Trade Flows and Trade Flow Trends (Asia & Pacific) 61 Map 4a* Value of All Forest Products Traded-Trade Flows and Trade Flow Trends (Latin America & Caribbean) 62 Map 4b Quantity of Roundwood** Products Traded-Trade Flows and Trade Flow Trends (Latin America & Caribbean) 63 Map 4c Quantity of Sawnwood Products Traded-Trade Flows and Trade Flow Trends (Latin America & Caribbean) 64 Map 4d Quantity of Panels Products Traded-Trade Flows and Trade Flow Trends (Latin America & Caribbean) 65 Map 4e Quantity of Pulp*** Products Traded-Trade Flows and Trade Flow Trends (Latin America & Caribbean) 66 Map 4f Quantity of Paper Products Traded-Trade Flows and Trade Flow Trends (Latin America & Caribbean) 67 Map sa* Value of All Forest Products Traded-Trade Flows and Trade Flow Trends (Area of Former USSR) 68 Map 5b Quantity of Roundwood** Products Traded-Trade Flows and Trade Flow Trends (Area of Former USSR) 69 Map 5c Quantity of Sawnwood Products Traded-Trade Flows and Trade Flow Trends (Area of Former USSR) 70 Map 5d Quantity of Panels Products Traded-Trade Flows and Trade Flow Trends (Area of Former USSR) 71 Map 5e Quantity of Pulp*** Products Traded-Trade Flows and Trade Flow Trends (Area of Former USSR) 72 Map 5f Quantity of Paper Products Traded-Trade Flows and Trade Flow Trends (Area of Former USSR) 73 Map 6a* Value of All Forest Products Traded-Trade Flows and Trade Flow Trends (Africa) 74 Map 6b Quantity of Roundwood** Products Traded-Trade Flows and Trade Flow Trends (Africa) 75 10 A GLOBAL STUDY OF REGIONALTRADE FLOWS OF FIVE GROUPS OF FOREST PRODUCTS Trade Flow Trends (Africa) 79 * Source: Matti Palo and Jussi Uusivuori (eds.) 1 999. W0r1d Forests, Society and Environment: Kluwer Academic Publishers. World Forests Volume I . Dordrecht/London/Boston. 404 p. **The aggregate Total Industrial Roundwood is used in trade flow maps (Fuelwood and Charcoal are not included in this aggregate) *** The aggregate Woodpulp is used in trade flow maps (Other Fiber Pulp and Recovered Paper are not included in this aggregate) 11 PART I OVERVIEW TEXT 1 Introduction 1.1 Background Early investigations of UN COMTRADE trade flow data were conducted at NASA and by FAO, Rome under the supervision of Philip Wardle.The first attempts by Gabor Kornai and Franco Pontecorvi (Kornai, 1 985; FAO, 1 987) were accomplished using Fortran programs which read raw data and produced standard reports. Later attempts by Bruce Michie (FAO, 1991 a; FAO, 1991 b) used SAS programs to investigate and analyze the trade flow data in stages. Once the process became proven, an attempt to reconcile the largest trade flows with information obtained from FAO questionaires resulted, for the first time, in the production of FAO Yearbook (FAO, 1995) and ECE/FAO Timber Bulletin (ECE/FAO, 1995) trade flow tables from one unique database. Inclusion of the full set of countries and products yields a database that, theoretically, gives the trade of any forest product that is traded between any two countries of the world. Only trade that goes unreported by both trading partners is missed. A demonstration of the scope of the trade flow database was made at EFI in 1995 when a full set of trade flow tables was placed on the Internet. This demonstration was composed of over 15,000 individual files giving the trade of 14 forest products for years 1992 and 1993. This demon stration can be found at the following web ad dress; http://www.efi.fi/~michie/Main/Trade/trade.htm In 1996 work on the forest products database was supported by a Joensuu City Scholarship. This work, conducted by Bruce Michie at EFI (Michie and Wardle, 1998) involved the analysis of newly acquired data as well as developing a system for projecting bilateral trade flows (32 graphs are included in the working paper). Starting in 1998 a subset of the WFSE/EFI Forest Products Trade Flow Database has been incorpo rated into EFl's Databank. EFI members can access the Databank over the Internet. European coun tries, countries making up the Area of the Former USSR, Canada, USA and Japan are included sepa rately. All other countries are aggregated into continents. The implications that expansion of the European Union may have for trade of forest products (including 40 graphs) forms the basis of an EFI Discussion Paper (Wardle and Michie, 1998). An analysis of ACP (Lome convention) country trade with the European Union (including 36 graphs) forms the basis of a second discussion paper (Wardle and Michie, 1999). The multi-client trade flow study is aimed at addressing issues relating to regional forest products trade flows around the world. Past trade development patterns are analyzed to see how regional trade flows vary through time.The outputs consist of a set of colored trade flow charts and maps.The pilot maps are already available in our Internet window (http://www.efi.fi/ projects/worldforests/).Trade flows are repre sented by both quantities (cubic meters or metric tons) and values (current US dollars). This study was necessitated by the fact that trading patterns may change dramatically through time. Analysis of these changes demand compre hensive analysis of a detailed bilateral forest products trade flow database. Realization of these needs has prompted the World Forests, Society and Environment Research Program (WFSE) to continue the updating, development and evalua tion of the WFSE/EFI Trade Flow Database which A GLOBAL STUDY OF REGIONALTRADE FLOWS OF FIVE GROUPS OF FOREST PRODUCTS 12 consists of 39 forest products and product aggre gates constituting countries and territories trade flows between the 235 countries trading in the international market over the period 1983-1996. The set of products are the same as those that can be found in the FAO Yearbook of Forest Products (e.g. FAO, 1 995). Some charts and maps included in this study (Those dealing with value trade of all forest products combined into one aggregate) were previously published inWFSE Volume I (edited by Palo and Uusivuori, 1 999). The UN Statistical Division in Geneva (more recently, New York) provided the raw trade flow data that was used to construct the WFSE/EFI Trade Flow Database. Part II includes 18 pages of graphs (10 graphs per page) while Part 111 includes 36 trade flow maps (consisting of 456 graphs). This study is aimed at forest industries, machine manufacturers, consulting companies, banks and other financial institutions, research and educa tional institutions, interested in detailed regionally analyzed trade flows for a several of forest prod ucts. 1.2 Purpose The purpose of this study is to identify and include the most important international trade flows of forest products by six regions between 1983 and 1996 in an easily accessible printed report. In addition, our aim is to produce an updateable CD that will include trade flow sum maries with animated regional sets of charts, maps and spreadsheets that are tailored to meet individual requirements. Our intention is to open up new possibilities for understanding the impact of trade on strategic decision making processes and to create new ideas for future scenario formulations on forest products trade. This study is based on an existing database (Michie andWardle 1 998). The database includes all forest products traded by any two countries (during the years 1983 to 1 996). The launching of trade flow data on the Internet in 1995 generated several queries regarding the availability of the trade flow data. 1.3 The structure of the study The study is done in two modules. Module one is a descriptive printed report with a display of regional forest products trade flow charts and maps. Module two is a CD with animated regional trade flow charts, maps and spreadsheets. In this study of module one, the world is represented by six regions: namely;Africa,Asia & Pacific, Europe, Latin America & Caribbean, North America and the Area of the Former Soviet Union. Part I is an overview.The figures for 1983 and 1996 are provided for scale (part II) and part 111 displays regional trade flow maps. We would like to point out that the trade flow data for each reporting country (or region) is different from that of their trading partners (countries or regions) for the same trade flow. This is due to the delays (transportation and storage) that occur between the delivery of a product to an export customs area and subse quent collection from import customs authorities. Additionally, export values are fob and import values are cif. 2 Recent Developments 2.1 WFSE/EFI Trade Flow Database The data used in this study is from the WFSE/EFI database and the primary raw data for our data base was purchased from the Commodity Trade Statistics Unit of the United Nations Statistical Division (UNSTAT) in Geneva (more recently, New York). Recent enhancements to theWFSE/ EFI Trade Flow Database have advanced it to the point where it is operational. The procedures used to process the data have been built over a number of years and are being continually revised and extended to include new checks and corrections.The result is a set of trade flows that include any forest product that has been traded between any two countries any where in the world. Many missing trade flows have been replaced with data from trading part ners. Missing trade flow quantities are calculated using a variety of methods involving the existing 13 value of the trade flow and an average unit value that has been calculated from the data. The trade flow database which has been produced includes all of the basic FAO forest products plus several product aggregates. Microsoft Access is the database package used to organize the trade flow data.Automated queries have been constructed that provide a range of reports with a minimum of effort. In addition, Microsoft Access allows the construction of user defined queries that can produce a wide variety of results with a relatively small amount of work. The full list of databases with included products is given below: Database Number of records Pulp 97 145456 OTHFP OTHER FIBRE PULP REPAP RECOVERED PAPER WOODP WOOD PULP (Total) BSPHA BLEACHED SULPHATE BSPHI BLEACHED SULPHITE DISOL DISSOLVING MECHP MECHANICAL SEMIC SEMI-CHEMICAL USPHA UNBLEACHED SULPHATE USPHI UNBLEACHED SULPHITE IRWD97 155902 CHAR CHARCOAL FUELW FUELWOOD CHIPP CHIPS & PARTS WOODR WOOD RESIDUES INDRW IND: ROUNDWOOD (WIR) - Total IRWNC NC IND. ROUNWOOD (WIR) IRWDC C IND. ROUNDWOOD (WIR) OINDR OTHER IND ROUNDWOOD PULPW PULPWOOD ROUND & SPLIT SLVLC SAWLOGS & VENEER. C. SLVNC SAWLOGS & VENEER NC. AIIForP 172736 ALLFP ALL FOREST PRODUCTS (Total) Sawnwd97 196648 TSNWD SAWNWOOD (Total) CSNWD SAWNWOOD C. NCSWD SAWNWOOD NC. Database Number of records Panels 97 273876 PANEL PANELS (Total) FIBNC FIBREBOARD NON COMP. FIBRC FIBREBOARD COMP. PARTB PARTICLE BOARD PLYWD PLYWOOD VNEER VENEER Paper 97 342902 PAPER PAPER AND PAPERBOARD (Total) NEWSP NEWSPRINT OTHRP OTHER PAPER AND PBD. PRWRI PRINTING & WRITING Aggreg97 60059 1 ALLFP ALL FOREST PRODUCTS (Total) CHAR CHARCOAL FUELW FUELWOOD INDRT TOTAL IND ROUNDWOOD TSNWD SAWNWOOD (Total) PANEL PANELS (Total) OTHFP OTHER FIBRE PULP REPAP RECOVERED PAPER WOODP WOOD PULP (Total) PAPER PAPER AND PAPERBOARD (Total) A GLOBAL STUDY OF REGIONAL TRADE FLOWS OF FIVE GROUPS OF FOREST PRODUCTS 14 2.2 Recent situation International trade in forest products experienced many structural changes in the 1980 s and early 19905. The most obvious of these changes is the breakup of the former USSR but important changes in China, enlargement of the European Union and new free trading blocks like NAFTA and MERCOSUR have also occurred. Overall exports of forest products grew consistently during this period. Growth of the value of all forest products exported during 1983-1996 was at an annual rate of 8.2% (current dollars). Indus trial roundwood exports increased at an annual rate of 4.8% ( 1 .7 % growth in quantity) over the same period. Sawnwood exports increased 7.2% (3.5 % growth in quantity) annually, panels exports increased 10.4% (7.6 % growth in quantity) woodpulp exports increased 6.4% (4.0 % growth in quantity), paper exports increased 9.5% (5.7 % growth in quantity) and exports of miscellaneous products (fuelwood, charcoal, other fiber pulp and recovered paper) increased 8% annually (6.6 % growth in quantity). Exports of all forest products from Latin America grew I 1 .3% annually. Exports from all other regions grew between 7.3% (North America) and 8.7% (Africa). Imports into Africa increased 2.5% while imports into the countries making up the Area of the Former Soviet Union grew 1 .0% annually. The region with imports growing at the fastest rate (9.6%) was the Asia & Pacific region. Imports into other regions ranged between 7.3% (North America) and 8.0% (Latin America). 3 Regional trade flow trends 3. 1 European Trade Trends Europe is the world's leading exporter and im porter of forest products. Its exports for 1983 and 1996 were 20.8 and 62.4 billion USD, respec tively for an annual average growth rate of 8.4%. However, a substantial share of its total exports were traded internally. European imports from other regions in 1983 and 1 996 were 6.8 and 1 3.9 billion USD, respectively (5.5% annual growth). Total European imports for 1983 and 1996 were 24.0 and 63.8 billion USD, respectively for an annual average growth rate of 7.5%. Euro pean exports to Africa, Area of the Former USSR, Asia & Pacific, Europe, Latin America and North America grew at annual rates of 3.4%, - 1 .0%, 8.5%, 8.8%, 10.6% and 1 0.6%, respectively. European imports from Africa, Area of the Former USSR, Asia & Pacific, Europe, Latin America and North America grew at annual rates of 5. 1 %, 7.7%, 1 .5%, 8.2%, 1 0.0% and 5. 1 %, respectively. Figure 1: Value of World Trade of Forest Products 15 Figure 2: European Trade Trends European exports were primarily paper products. European exports to European countries of industrial roundwood, sawnwood, panel producs, woodpulp, paper and miscellaneous products increased at annual rates of 5.6%, 6.7%, 9.3%, 5.3%, 10.2% and 7.2%, respectively. European exports to non-European countries of industrial roundwood, sawnwood, panel producs, woodpulp, paper and miscellaneous products increased at annual rates of 0.8%, 3.6%, 8.7%, - 1 .8%, 8.8% and 1 2.2%, respec tively. European exports to European and non- European countries grew at 8.8% and 7.0% annual rates, respectively. 3.2 North American Trade Trends North America is the world's second largest ex porter and third largest importer of forest prod ucts. Its exports for 1 983 and 1 996 were 1 6.7 and 43.0 billion USD, respectively for an annual average growth rate of 7.3%. North American exports to Asia & Pacific, Europe, Latin America, North America and other regions grew at annual rates of 8.8%, 5. 1 %, 8.7%, 7.2% and -0.2%, respec tively. North American imports from Asia & Pacific, Europe, Latin America, North America and other regions grew at annual rates of 4.3%, I 1 .5%, 1 3.9%, 6.8% and I 1.1%, respectively. A GLOBAL STUDY OF REGIONAL TRADE FLOWS OF FIVE GROUPS OF FOREST PRODUCTS 16 Figure 3: North American Trade Trends North American exports to North America of industrial roundwood,sawnwood, panel producs, woodpulp, paper and miscellaneous products increased at annual rates of 8.5%, 7.6%, 1 3.8%, 4.2%, 7.0% and 9.6%, respectively. North Ameri can exports to Asian & Pacific countries of indus trial roundwood, sawnwood, panel producs, woodpulp, paper and miscellaneous products increased at annual rates of 4.9%, I 1.4%, 14.8%, 8.2%, I 1.3% and 6. 1 %, respectively. North Ameri can exports to European countries of industrial roundwood, sawnwood, panel producs, woodpulp, paper and miscellaneous products increased at annual rates of - 1 .2%, 4.6%, 3.7%, 5.2%, 6.3% and 5.6%, respectively. North American exports to North America, Asia & Pacific and Europe grew at 7.2%, 8.8% and 5. 1 % annual rates, respectively. 3.3 Asian & Pacific Trade Trends The Asia & Pacific region is the world's third largest exporter and second largest importer of forest products. Its exports for 1 983 and 1 996 were 6.5 and 20.0 billion USD, respectively for an annual average growth rate of 8.6%. Asian & Pacific imports for 1983 and 1996 were 13.6 and 47.4 billion USD, respectively for an annual Figure 4: Asian & Pacific Trade Trends 17 average growth rate of 9.7%. A substantial share of its total exports were traded internally.Asian & Pacific exports to Asian & Pacific countries in 1 983 and 1 996 were 4.8 and 1 7.4 billion USD, respectively (9.83% annual growth). Asian & Pacific imports from other regions in 1 983 and 1 996 were 8. 1 and 27.8 billion USD, respectively (9.5% annual growth). Asian & Pacific exports to Asia & Pacific, Europe, North America and other regions grew at annual rates of 9.8%, 2.6%, 3.6% and 3.7%, respectively. Asian & Pacific imports from Africa, Area of the Former USSR, Asia & Pacific, Europe, Latin America and North America grew at annual rates of 1 4.0%, 8.7%, 9.7%, 8.5%, 1 4.4% and 9.2%, respectively. Asian & Pacific exports to Asian & Pacific coun tries of industrial roundwood, sawnwood, panel producs, woodpulp, paper and miscellaneous products increased at annual rates of 2.9%, 1 0.4%, 15.7%, 12.4%, 1 2.5% and 1 0.3%, respectively. Asian & Pacific exports to non-Asian & Pacific countries of industrial roundwood, sawnwood, panel producs, woodpulp, paper and miscellaneous A GLOBAL STUDY OF REGIONAL TRADE FLOWS OF FIVE GROUPS OF FOREST PRODUCTS 17 products increased at annual rates of -1.3%, 1.6%, 1 .7%, 30.2%, 7.4% and 1 5. 1 %, respectively. Asian & Pacific exports to Asian & Pacific and non-Asian & Pacific countries grew at 9.8% and 3.1% annual rates, respectively. 3.4 Latin American & Caribbean Trade Trends Latin American exports for 1983 and 1996 were 1 .4 and 6. 1 billion USD, respectively for an annual average growth rate of I 1.3%. Latin American imports in 1983 and 1 996 were 1.8 and 5.1 billion USD, respectively (8.0% annual growth). Latin American exports to Africa, Asia & Pacific, Europe, Latin America and North America grew at annual rates of 6.1%, 13.1%, 10.2%, 9.4% and 13.7%, respectively. Latin American imports from Africa, Area of the Former USSR, Asia & Pacific, Europe, Latin America and North America grew at annual rates of 2.2%, 23.5%, 4.7%, 9. 1 %, 8.9% and 7.4%, respectively. Latin American exports of industrial roundwood, sawnwood, panel producs, woodpulp, paper and miscellaneous products increased at annual rates Figure 5: Latin America & Caribbean Trade Trends Figure 6: Area of Former Soviet Union Trade trends 19 of 1 7.4%, 9.8%, I 1.8%, I 1.0%, I 1.2% and 13.3%, respectively. Latin American imports of industrial roundwood wood, sawnwood, panel products, woodpulp, paper and miscellaneous products increased at annual rates of 3.5%, 4.4%, 10.7%, 6.9%, 9.0% and 4.2%, respectively. 3.5 Area of Former Soviet Union Trade Trends Exports from countries making up the Area of Former Soviet Union for 1983 and 1996 were 1.4 and 4. 1 billion USD, respectively for an annual average growth rate of 8.0%. Imports into coun tries making up the Area of Former Soviet Union imports in 1983 and 1996 were 0.6 and 0.7 billion USD, respectively ( 1 .0% annual growth). Area of Former Soviet Union exports to Asia & Pacific, Europe and other regions grew at annual rates of 8.7%, 7.3% and 10.9%, respectively. Area of Former Soviet Union imports from Europe and other regions grew at annual rates of -0.8% and 1 9. 1 %, respectively. Area of Former Soviet Union exports of indus trial roundwood, sawnwood, panel producs, woodpulp, paper and miscellaneous products increased at annual rates of 6. 1 %, 5.0%, 15.1%, I 1 .4%, 1 5.9% and 7.8%, respectively. 3.6 African Trade Trends African exports for 1 983 and 1 996 were 1 .0 and 3. 1 billion USD, respectively for an annual average A GLOBAL STUDY OF REGIONALTRADE FLOWS OF FIVE GROUPS OF FOREST PRODUCTS 20 growth rate of 8.7%. African imports in 1 983 and 1996 were 2.3 and 3.1 billion USD, respectively (2.5% annual growth). African exports to Africa, Asia & Pacific, Europe and other regions grew at annual rates of 8.9%, 1 3.8%, 6.3% and 6.3%, re spectively. African imports from Africa, Europe and other regions grew at annual rates of 9.0%, 2.2% and 1 .7%, respectively. African exports of industrial roundwood, sawnwood, panel producs, woodpulp, paper and miscellaneous products increased at annual rates of 5.6%, I 1.5%, 8.3%, I 1.8%, 1 3.2% and 14.4%, respectively. African imports of industrial roundwood, sawnwood, panel producs, woodpulp, paper and miscellaneous products increased at annual rates of 1.0%, 0.0%, 1.6%, 1.8%, 5.0% and 8.5%, respectively. 4 CONCLUSIONS A general review of world export and import trade indicates that paper has the largest share of all forest products trade for both 1983 and 1996, followed by sawnwood trade. Asia & Pacific has increased its share both in exports and imports of Figure 7: African Trade Trends 21 the world's forest products trade since 1983, while North America's share in the world's forest products trade has declined both in the exports and imports. The share of the most value added products in the world's forest products trade has increased considerably since the early 1980 s. At the regional trade level, paper has the highest share of all exports from Europe to world in both 1983 and 1996. Europe exports of paper to Europe accounted for 63% of total paper export trade in 1996. The outlook for Asia and Pacific trade with the rest of the world indicated that panels accounted for 42.5% of total exports in 1 996. Latin America & Caribbean total exports to world indicated that woodpulp dominated the export market for forest products for both 1 983 and 1996. At the import level, the share of paper was 66.4% of total imports into Latin America & Caribbean in 1996 (see figs 5). Exports from the former USSR indicated that industrial roundwood domi nated total exports to other regions. And indus trial roundwood dominated all exports from Africa to other regions in both 1 983 and 1 996, while paper imports accounted for a major share of all forest products imports for the same periods (see fig 7). The value of world total exports of all forest products by region in 1996 is in the order of magnitude as follows: Europe approximately 62.4 billion USD, North America 43.0 billion USD, Asia and Pacific 20.0 billion USD, Latin America 6.1 billion USD, the former USSR 4.1 billion USD and Africa 3. 1 billion USD. Europe, North America and Asia & Pacific regional exports are primarily traded internally as only about a third of exports go to other regions. REFERENCES Bruce Michie and Philip Wardle. 1998. UNSTATTrade Data as Basis for Analysis and Protections of Forests Products Trade Flows.Working Paper 17, European Forest Institute, Joensuu, Finland, 1 998. ISBN 952-9844-59-X. 44 p. ECE/FAO. 1 995. Timber Bulletin Forest Products Trade Flow Data 1 992- 1 993. Volume XLVII (1994), No. 5. UN, New York and Geneva. 9 1 p. (ECE/TIM/BULL/47/5). FAO. 1987. Forest Products: The Direction of Trade. Statistics and Economic Analysis Group. Policy and Planning Service. Forestry Dept. FAO, Rome. 1 62 p. (M/52486/E/2.87/1 /S00). FAO. 1991 a. Forest Products: The Direction of Trade 1 985- 1989 Volume I. Roundwood, Sawnwood and Woodbased Panels. FAO, Rome. 306 p. (M/U5570E/1 / 1 .92/ 1 000). FAO. 1991 b. Forest Products: The Direction of Trade 1985- 1989 Volume ll.Woodpulp, Paper and Paperboard. FAO, Rome. 20 1 p. (M/U5820E/1 / 1 .92/ 1 000). FAO 1995. FAO Yearbook Forest Products. FAO Forestry Series No. 28. FAO Statistics Series No. 1 22. FAO, Rome. Kornai, G. 1 985. Reconciliation of Forest Product Trade Data. Working Paper (WP-85-48). lIASA. Laxenburg,Austria. 18 p. Matti Palo and Jussi Uusivuori (eds.) 1 999. W0r1d Forests, Society and Environment: Kluwer Academic Publishers. World Forests Volume I . Dordrecht/London/Boston. 404 p. Wardle, P and B. Michie. 1998. Markets for Forest Products in Europe in the Face of Integration and Globalisation.. Discussion Paper 3. European Forest Institute. Joensuu, Finland 28p. (158N:952-9844-57-3). Wardle, P and B. Michie. 1999.ACP Forest Products Trade and the European Union. Discussion Paper 4. European Forest Institute. Joensuu, Finland 40p. (158N:952-9844-58-1 ). 22 A GLOBAL STUDY OF REGIONALTRADE FLOWS OF FIVE GROUPS OF FOREST PRODUCTS 23 PART II FOREST PRODUCTSTRADE FIGURES 24 A GLOBAL STUDY OF REGIONAL TRADE FLOWS OF FIVE GROUPS OF FOREST PRODUCTS APPENDIX A Products found in Graphs Individual Products Aggregate Quantity Trade Forest Products Total Paper (PAPER) Newsprint (NEWSP) Other Paper & Paperboard (OTHRP) Printing & Writing Paper (PRWRI) Woodpulp (WOODP) Bleached Sulphate (BSPHA) Dissolving (DISOL) Mechanical (Mech+Semi) Semichemical (Mech+Semi) Unbleached Sulphate (USPHA) Bleached Sulphite (Sulphite) Unbleached Sulphite (Sulphite) Miscellaneous Fibers Other Fiber Pulp (OTHFP) (Misc) Recovered Paper (REPAP) (Misc) Panels (PANEL) Non-compressed Fiberboard (Fiberßd) Compressed Fiberboard (Fiberßd) Particleboard (PARTB) Plywood (PLYWD) Veneer (VNEER) Sawnwood (TSNWD) Coniferous Sawnwood (CSNWD) Non-coniferous Sawnwood (NCSWD) Industrial Roundwood-Wood in the Rough Coniferous Industrial Roundwood-Wood in the Rough (C I N DRW) Coniferous Sawlogs and Veneer Logs (C INDRW) Non-coniferous Industrial Roundwood-Wood in the Rough (NC INDRW) Non-coniferous Sawlogs and Veneer Logs (NC INDRW) Pulpwood (PULPW) Other Industrial Roundwood (OINDR) Total Industrial Roundwood (INDRT) Industrial Roundwood- Wood in the Rough Chips & Particles (CHIPWAST) Wood Waste (CHIPWAST) Miscellaneous Fuels Fuelwood (FLWDCHAR) (Misc) Charcoal (FLWDCHAR) (Misc) 25 Figure 1a: Value of World and European Trade of Forest Products 26 A GLOBAL STUDY OF REGIONAL TRADE FLOWS OF FIVE GROUPS OF FOREST PRODUCTS Figure 1b: Volume of World and European Trade of Roundwood Products 27 Figure 1c: Volume of World and European Trade of Sawnwood Products 28 A GLOBAL STUDY OF REGIONALTRADE FLOWS OF FIVE GROUPS OF FOREST PRODUCTS 29 Figure 1e: Volume of World and European Trade of Pulp Products 30 A GLOBAL STUDY OF REGIONALTRADE FLOWS OF FIVE GROUPS OF FOREST PRODUCTS Figure 1f: Volume of World and European Trade of Paper Products 31 Figure 2a: Value of forest products regional trade withmajorregional trading partners 32 A GLOBAL STUDY OF REGIONAL TRADE FLOWS OF FIVE GROUPS OF FOREST PRODUCTS Figure 2b: Volume of Roundwood Products Regional Trade withMajorRegional Trading Partners 33 Figure 2c: Volume of Sawnwood Products Regional Trade withMajorRegional Trading Partners A GLOBAL STUDY OF REGIONALTRADE FLOWS OF FIVE GROUPS OF FOREST PRODUCTS 34 Figure 2d: Volume of Panel Products Regional Trade withMajorRegional Trading Partners 35 Figure 2e: Volume of Pulp Products Regional Trade withMajorRegional Trading Partners A GLOBAL STUDY OF REGIONALTRADE FLOWS OF FIVE GROUPS OF FOREST PRODUCTS 36 Figure 2f: Volume of Paper Products Regional Trade withMajorRegional Trading Partners 37 Figure 3a: Value of Forest Product of Selected RegionalTrade Flows 38 A GLOBAL STUDY OF REGIONAL TRADE FLOWS OF FIVE GROUPS OF FOREST PRODUCTS Figure 3b: Volume by Roundwood Product of Selected RegionalTradeFlows 39 Figure 3c: Volume by Sawnwood Product of Selected RegionalTradeFlows 40 A GLOBAL STUDY OF REGIONALTRADE FLOWS OF FIVE GROUPS OF FOREST PRODUCTS Figure 3d: Volume by Panel Product of Selected RegionalTrade Flows 41 Figure 3e: Volume by Pulp Product of Selected RegionalTrade Flows 42 A GLOBAL STUDY OF REGIONALTRADE FLOWS OF FIVE GROUPS OF FOREST PRODUCTS Figure 3f: Volume by Paper Product of Selected RegionalTrade Flows 43 PART III FOREST PRODUCTS TRADE FLOW MAPS 44 A GLOBAL STUDY OF REGIONALTRADE FLOWS OF FIVE GROUPS OF FOREST PRODUCTS Map 1a: Value of All Forest Products Traded - Trade Flows and Trade Flow Trends (Europe) Map 1b: Quantity of Roundwood Products Traded - Trade Flows and Trade Flow Trends (Europe) 45 Map 1c: Quantity of Sawnwood Products Traded - Trade Flows and Trade Flow Trends (Europe) A GLOBAL STUDY OF REGIONALTRADE FLOWS OF FIVE GROUPS OF FOREST PRODUCTS 46 47 Map Id: Quantity of Panel Products Traded - Trade Flows and Trade Flow Trends (Europe) Map 1e: Quantity of Pulp Products Traded - Trade Flows and Trade Flow Trends (Europe) A GLOBAL STUDY OF REGIONALTRADE FLOWS OF FIVE GROUPS OF FOREST PRODUCTS 48 49 Map 1f: Quantity of Paper Products Traded - Trade Flows and Trade Flow Trends (Europe) 50 A GLOBAL STUDY OF REGIONALTRADE FLOWS OF FIVE GROUPS OF FOREST PRODUCTS Map 1a: Valueof Al For st Products T aded -Trade Flows n Tra e Flow Trends (North America) 1ap 2b: Quantity of Roundwood Products Traded - Trade Flows and Trade Flow Trends (North America) 51 Map 2c: Quantity of Sawnwood Products Traded - Trade Flows and Trade Flow Trends (North America) A GLOBAL STUDY OF REGIONAL TRADE FLOWS OF FIVE GROUPS OF FOREST PRODUCTS 52 53 Map 2d: Quantity of Panel Products Traded - Trade Flows and Trade Flow Trends (North America) Map 2e: Quantity of Pulp Products Traded - Trade Flows and Trade Flow Trends (North America) A GLOBAL STUDY OF REGIONALTRADE FLOWS OF FIVE GROUPS OF FOREST PRODUCTS 54 Map 2f: Quantity of Paper Products Traded - Trade Flows and Trade Flow Trends (North America) 55 56 A GLOBAL STUDY OF REGIONAL TRADE FLOWS OF FIVE GROUPS OF FOREST PRODUCTS Map 3a: Value of All Forest Products Traded - Trade Flows and Trade Flow Trends (Asia & Pacific) Map 3b: Quantity of Roundwood Products Traded - Trade Flows and Trade Flow Trends (Asia & Pacific) 57 Map 3c: Quantity of Sawnwood Products Traded - Trade Flows and Trade Flow Trends (Asia & Pacific) A GLOBAL STUDY OF REGIONAL TRADE FLOWS OF FIVE GROUPS OF FOREST PRODUCTS 58 59 Man 3d: Ouantitv of Panel Products Traded - Trade Flows and Trade Flow Trends (Asia & Pacific) Map 3e: Quantity of Pulp Products Traded - Trade Flows and Trade Flow Trends (Asia & Pacific) A GLOBAL STUDY OF REGIONAL TRADE FLOWS OF FIVE GROUPS OF FOREST PRODUCTS 60 61 Map 3f: Quantity of Paper Products Traded - Trade Flows and Trade Flow Trends (Asia & Pacific) Map 4a: Value of All Forest Products Traded-TradeFlowsandTrade Flow Trends (Latin America & Caribbean) A GLOBAL STUDY OF REGIONAL TRADE FLOWS OF FIVE GROUPS OF FOREST PRODUCTS 62 Map 4b: Quantity of Roundwood Products Traded - Trade Flows and Trade Flow Trends (Latin America & Caribbean) 63 Map 4c: Quantity of Sawnwood Products Traded - Trade Flows and Trade Flow Trends (Latin America & Caribbean) A GLOBAL STUDY OF REGIONALTRADE FLOWS OF FIVE GROUPS OF FOREST PRODUCTS 64 Map 4d: Quantity of Panel Products Traded - Trade Flows and Trade Flow Trends (Latin America & Caribbean) 65 Map 4e: Quantity of Pulp Products Traded - Trade Flows and Trade Flow Trends (Latin America & Caribbean) A GLOBAL STUDY OF REGIONAL TRADE FLOWS OF FIVE GROUPS OF FOREST PRODUCTS 66 Map 4f: Quantity of Paper Products Traded - Trade Flows and Trade Flow Trends (Latin America & Caribbean) 67 Map 5a: Value of AH Forest Products Traded-TradeFlowsandTrade Flow Trends (Area of Former USSR) A GLOBAL STUDY OF REGIONAL TRADE FLOWS OF FIVE GROUPS OF FOREST PRODUCTS 68 69 Map 5b: Quantity of Roundwood Products Traded - Trade Flows and Trade Flow Trends (Area of Former USSR) Map 5c: Quantity of Sawnwood Products Traded - Trade Flows and Trade Flow Trends (Area of Former USSR) A GLOBAL STUDY OF REGIONAL TRADE FLOWS OF FIVE GROUPS OF FOREST PRODUCTS 70 71 Map 5d: Quantity of Panel Products Traded - Trade Flows and Trade Flow Trends (Area of Former USSR) Map 5e: Quantity of Pulp Products Traded - Trade Flows and Trade Flow Trends (Area of Former USSR) A GLOBAL STUDY OF REGIONAL TRADE FLOWS OF FIVE GROUPS OF FOREST PRODUCTS 72 73 Map 5f: Quantity of Paper Products Traded - Trade Flows and Trade Flow Trends (Area of Former USSR) 74 A GLOBAL STUDY OF REGIONALTRADE FLOWS OF FIVE GROUPS OF FOREST PRODUCTS Map 6a: Value of All Forest Products Traded-TradeFlows and Trade Flow Trends (Africa) Map 6b: Quantity of Roundwood Products Traded - Trade Flows and Trade Flow Trends (Africa) 75 Map 6c: Quantity of Sawnwood Products Traded - Trade Flows and Trade Flow Trends (Africa) A GLOBAL STUDY OF REGIONAL TRADE FLOWS OF FIVE GROUPS OF FOREST PRODUCTS 76 Map 6d: Quantity of Panel Products Traded - Trade Flows and Trade Flow Trends (Africa) 77 Map 6e: Quantity of Pulp Products Traded - Trade Flows and Trade Flow Trends (Africa) A GLOBAL STUDY OF REGIONALTRADE FLOWS OF FIVE GROUPS OF FOREST PRODUCTS 78 79 Map 6f: Quantity of Paper Products Traded - Trade Flows and Trade Flow Trends (Africa) This book is based on a global study of five groups of forest products trade flows. The analysis is done by grouping the world into six forest products trading regions. The important structural changes that occurred during the past decade make this study a timely addition to the understanding of global forest products trade. Prior to this study information on global forest products trade was limited to only few exporters and importers.The integration of annual bilaterial trade flow data covering 235 countries and territories with 26 basic forest products and 1 3 product aggregates from 1 983 to 1 996 makes it the world's largest trade flow study. Industrial roundwood, sawnwood, panels, woodpulp, paper and misc products (other fiber pulp, recovered paper, fuelwood and charcoal) are the main product categories covered in the study. Africa, Area of the former USSR, Asia & Pacific, Europe, Latin America & Caribbean and North America (Canada & USA) are used as regional groupings. Past trade development patterns are analyzed to see how trade flows change over time.This study clearly demonstrates the value of trade flow data in studying the forest sector. The study is structured as follows: Part I gives an overview and descriptive text; Part 2is a display of 1 80 trade flow figures, and Part 3 displays 36 trade flow maps and trends. Both figures and maps are published in colours. . Copies of this publication can be ordered from wfse-multiclient@metla.fi, WFSE c/o METLA, Unioninkatu 40 A, FIN-001 70 Helsinki, Finland ISBN 951-40-1674-2